Crypto News
Bettors Lose Millions Predicting the New Pope as Polymarket Edge Fizzles Out

Bettors on crypto prediction platform Polymarket have, in current months, developed an enviable repute for beating the bookies.
So it got here as a shock on Thursday once they bought the end result of the papal conclave very mistaken certainly.
Winner Robert Francis Prevost wasn’t among the many favorites, with bettors solely giving the US-born cardinal round a 1% probability of succeeding Pope Francis forward of the end result.
Polymarket bettors, like conventional betting markets, gave Cardinal Pietro Parolin the very best odds, at 28%.
With over $28 million of bets positioned on candidates aside from Prevost, the end result was a complete wipeout for a lot of bettors.
The occasion throws into query the perceived heightened accuracy of betting markets like Poymarket over typical polls.
Polymarket lets customers guess on the outcomes of every part from soccer fixtures to political elections. Not like conventional betting platforms, the place the home units the percentages primarily based on its greatest diligence, Polymarket odds are a real-time reflection of the bets positioned by customers.
Merely put, the extra demand there’s for a sure end result, the upper the percentages and the costs paid for the bets are.
In November, Polymarket gained mainstream notoriety when bettors gave Republican candidate Donald Trump considerably increased odds than most different sources to win the US presidency.
“Polymarket costs appear to be wrapping up the views of good cash fairly nicely,” Koleman Stumpf, an economics professor at Wake Forest College in North Carolina, told CoinDesk on the time, noting that Polymarket bettors appeared to have a slight edge in predicting the election end result.
A historic information analysis carried out by New York Metropolis-based information scientist Alex McCullough confirmed Polymarket beforehand predicted the end result of world occasions one month out with 90% accuracy.
What went mistaken?
The explanation Polymarket bettors bought the papal conclave end result so mistaken is that the occasion is extraordinarily exhausting to foretell, Domer, one in all Polymarket’s prime pseudonymous bettors, said on X.
“It is like strolling right into a retailer that does not talk with the skin world,” he stated. “Not even the members themselves would in all probability know handicap it.”
Because it’s exhausting for bettors to seek out an edge with such an esoteric guess, many seemingly defaulted to following the opinions of conventional betting markets and the media, ensuing within the shut alignment of odds between Polymarket and different betting markets like Betfair.
The rarity of papal conclaves can also have made issues tough.
Pope Francis, the earlier pope, was appointed in 2013, years earlier than blockchain-based betting platforms like Polymarket existed. It is also doable that many Polymarket bettors seemingly had no prior expertise betting on the occasion.
Political elections, the place Polymarket odds have lined up nearer to outcomes, are rather more frequent and broadly understood.
In keeping with Domer, the actual edge in betting on the papal conclave will not be selecting the proper candidate however relatively betting towards these with too-high odds.
He chalked up the excessive odds of heavy favorites Parolin, and Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, who Polymarket bettors gave a 20% probability of successful, to their reputation with the general public and the media.
“The pricing for Parolin and Tagle have been means too excessive, and excessive for not superb causes,” he stated.
Learn extra: Polymarket is 90% Accurate in Predicting World Events: Research
Crypto News
Top 10 Crypto Presale Tokens Generating Buzz in June 2025 According to Neo Pepe

This content material is offered by a sponsor. The crypto market by no means ceases to amaze us. With each passing month, new tokens enter the presale stage, tantalizing buyers with guarantees of revolutionary expertise, distinctive use circumstances, and (in fact) excessive returns. June 2025 isn’t any completely different, and we’ve compiled an inventory of the highest 10 crypto […]
Crypto News
Meta sues AI ‘nudify’ app Crush AI for advertising on its platforms

Meta has sued the maker of a preferred AI “nudify” app, Crush AI, that reportedly ran 1000’s of advertisements throughout Meta’s platforms. Along with the lawsuit, Meta says it’s taking new measures to crack down on different apps like Crush AI.
In a lawsuit filed in Hong Kong, Meta alleged Pleasure Timeline HK, the entity behind Crush AI, tried to bypass the corporate’s evaluation course of to distribute advertisements for AI nudify providers. Meta mentioned in a weblog submit that it repeatedly eliminated advertisements by the entity for violating its insurance policies, however claims Pleasure Timeline HK continued to put extra advertisements anyway.
Crush AI, which makes use of generative AI to make faux, sexually specific photographs of actual folks with out their consent, reportedly ran more than 8,000 ads for its “AI undresser” services on Meta’s platform within the first two weeks of 2025, in accordance with the writer of the Faked Up e-newsletter, Alexios Mantzarlis. In a January report, Mantzarlis claimed that Crush AI’s web sites obtained roughly 90% of their site visitors from both Fb or Instagram, and that he flagged a number of of those web sites to Meta.
Crush AI reportedly evaded Meta’s advert evaluation processes by establishing dozens of advertiser accounts and incessantly modified domains. A lot of Crush AI’s advertiser accounts, in accordance with Mantzarlis, have been named “Eraser Annyone’s Garments” adopted by completely different numbers. At one level, Crush AI even had a Fb web page selling its service.
Fb and Instagram are hardly the one platforms coping with such challenges. As social media firms like X and Meta race so as to add generative AI to their apps, they’ve additionally struggled to average how AI instruments could make their platforms unsafe for customers, notably minors.
Researchers have discovered that hyperlinks to AI undressing apps soared in 2024 on platforms like X and Reddit, and on YouTube, thousands and thousands of individuals have been reportedly served ads for such apps. In response to this rising downside, Meta and TikTok have banned keyword searches for AI nudify apps, however getting these providers off their platforms solely has confirmed difficult.
In a weblog submit, Meta mentioned it has developed new expertise to particularly establish advertisements for AI nudify or undressing providers “even when the advertisements themselves don’t embody nudity.” The corporate mentioned it’s now utilizing matching expertise to assist discover and take away copycat advertisements extra shortly, and has expanded the record of phrases, phrases and emoji which are flagged by its methods.
Meta mentioned it’s also making use of the techniques it has historically used to disrupt networks of unhealthy actors to those new networks of accounts operating advertisements for AI nudify providers. For the reason that begin of 2025, Meta mentioned, it has disrupted 4 separate networks selling these providers.
Outdoors of its apps, the corporate mentioned it can start sharing details about AI nudify apps by way of Tech Coalition’s Lantern program, a collective effort between Google, Meta, Snap and different firms to forestall youngster sexual exploitation on-line. Meta says it has offered greater than 3,800 distinctive URLs with this community since March.
On the legislative entrance, Meta mentioned it will “proceed to support legislation that empowers dad and mom to supervise and approve their teenagers’ app downloads.” The corporate beforehand supported the US Take It Down Act, and mentioned it’s now working with lawmakers to implement it.
Crypto News
Hedge Funds Embrace Weekend Crypto Trading as 24/7 Markets Expand

The always-on crypto market is reshaping world finance, pushing hedge funds and buying and selling corporations to look past conventional hours and workers desks via the weekend.
Qube Analysis & Applied sciences, a worldwide quantitative funding administration agency headquartered in London, is hiring for a “Crypto | Quant Dealer (Weekend Shift)” function in London, which requires weekend availability along with a four-day workweek.
The function, which incorporates overseeing continuous crypto trading, monitoring technique efficiency and dangers and implementing indicators and information units, requires working each different weekend and a traditional day shift 4 days per week.
In contrast to conventional monetary markets that function on fastened schedules and shut on weekends, the crypto market runs 24/7. There are not any closing bells, holidays or after-hours classes, and worth actions can occur at any time, even throughout weekends.
Associated: Crypto sentiment recovers, but weekend liquidity risks remain
TradFi corporations rent for weekend crypto roles
Different conventional finance corporations are additionally increasing crypto hiring to cowl weekends. American high-frequency buying and selling firm Virtu Monetary is seeking a weekend dealer in Singapore to cowl digital asset exercise outdoors of weekday buying and selling home windows.
Leap Buying and selling’s crypto division was trying to rent a weekend dealer in Chicago. The position is at the moment not obtainable, suggesting the corporate may need discovered the appropriate candidate.
The rise in weekend crypto roles comes as main hedge funds and buying and selling corporations are constructing crypto groups and infrastructure to function across the clock.
Brevan Howard’s devoted crypto unit, BH Digital, now boasts dozens of workers, together with over 15 portfolio managers, greater than 10 information scientists/merchants and 20 exterior engineers supporting its methods.
Steve Cohen’s hedge fund, Point72, is equally increasing. Its Cubist quant division is hiring a crypto-focused quantitative developer in Paris.
In a March report, CoinShares revealed that seven of the highest 10 largest holders of Bitcoin (BTC) ETF shares are actually hedge funds. “Hedge funds alone now account for 41% of all 13-F Bitcoin ETF holdings, surpassing funding advisers for the primary time,” the agency wrote.
Associated: Wintermute to open New York office, eyes OTC and derivatives growth
Crypto stays risky on weekends
Crypto continues to indicate volatility throughout weekends. In April, crypto costs tumbled after a Friday tariff announcement by US President Donald Trump. The decline continued over the weekend, which noticed Bitcoin drop 7%, to $77,000 from $83,000.
Crypto markets can even flip extraordinarily risky throughout weekends if hacks or breaches happen. With thinner liquidity and restricted staffing, exploits timed for late Friday or Saturday can set off speedy sell-offs, resulting in sharp worth drops.
Whereas hedge funds are solely now hiring for weekend roles, crypto merchants have lengthy operated with out breaks.
“Weekends are for working. Free time? No such factor, work time. Save your free time for the bear. For now, we grind,” altcoin dealer Altcoin Gordon wrote on X.
Journal: Older investors are risking everything for a crypto-funded retirement
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