Is Bitcoin price going to crash again?

Key takeaways:

• Bitcoin’s 36% rebound from $74,500 runs into resistance at $106,000.

• Bid-side liquidity is staking up on the draw back close to $93,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) value has rebounded by 36% from its April 9, five-month low at $74,500. Nonetheless, its failure to decisively break above $106,000 has sparked considerations about whether or not a pointy correction is feasible within the coming days.

Over 97% of Bitcoin’s holders at the moment are in revenue

Bitcoin’s current break above $105,000 noticed its value rise above the short-term holder realized value as this cohort of merchants flipped a few of their unrealized losses into revenue. 

Information from CryptoQuant reveals that lower than 2.8% of Bitcoin buyers had been nonetheless able of loss when the value hovered round $102,000 on Might 15, subsequently accounting for 97% of the availability in revenue.

The share provide in revenue and loss evaluates the sum of unspent transaction outputs (UTXO) which can be in revenue or not by evaluating the value once they had been final moved and the present value.

If Bitcoin continues to rise from the present ranges, extra buyers will stay in revenue. A excessive variety of holders in revenue is usually seen as an indication of an overheated market, which usually precedes or coincides with value corrections. 

Because of this onchain sign, Bitcoin’s value might even see pullbacks over the approaching days as buyers select to guide earnings. 

Bitcoin open curiosity stays excessive

Open interest (OI) on Bitcoin derivatives hit a close to report excessive of $67.5 billion on Might 14, as BTC got here near overcoming the resistance on the $106,000 degree. 

“Bitcoin is beginning to look fairly exhausted right here, open curiosity caught as much as the approximate ranges of prior all-time excessive,” said pseudonymous dealer Adam in a Might 15 put up on X, including:

“I believe the transfer from 80,000 was vital sufficient to not see new lows, however this isn’t the place the place I might open recent longs.”

Moreover, Bitcoin CME futures OI additionally hit a 90-day excessive of 146,950 BTC on Might 13, value roughly $16.5 billion on the time, as per CryptoQuant information. 

On the time of publication, CME had the lion’s share of the OI with 22.9%, adopted by Binance with 17.4%, then Bybit with 10%. 

With the present robust demand for BTC futures contracts, buyers are considering the opportunity of a pullback just like the one which occurred in late January, when BTC costs dropped virtually 16% inside seven days, setting a swing low at $91,530.

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Bitcoin value runs into resistance at $106,000

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s newest rally was curtailed by a provide congestion zone between $106,000 and the $109,000 all-time high. When the value was rejected from this degree on Jan. 31, it recorded a 27% loss to $78,000, suggesting that the bears are aggressively defending this zone. 

Bitcoin bulls had been required to provide a decisive day by day candlestick shut above this space to maintain the restoration.

Failure to flip $106,000 into help might trigger the value to drop decrease, with the accompanying lengthy place liquidations pulling the value towards the yr open at $93,000. 

Information from CoinGlass confirmed a wall of ask orders increase above $106,000, reinforcing the significance of this resistance space.

This text doesn’t include funding recommendation or suggestions. Each funding and buying and selling transfer includes threat, and readers ought to conduct their very own analysis when making a call.