When Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Friday opened the door to cutting interest rates for the first time in nearly a year, he noted the tremors beginning to shake a main pillar of the U.S. economy: the labor market. 

Concerns about the pace of job growth were heightened earlier this month after government data showed a sharp slowdown in hiring in July, along with much weaker payroll gains in May and June than previously thought. The disappointing numbers were alarming enough for President Trump to question their accuracy and to fire the head of the agency tasked with compiling the data.

Yet labor experts tell CBS News they weren’t surprised by the downturn, and caution that more pain could be in store for job seekers. Data released since the August 1 job numbers shows companies are delaying hiring as they adjust course to account for headwinds including fresh U.S. tariffs and the advent of artificial intelligence, they say. 

“There’s a real cooling in the labor market,” Andy Challenger, senior vice president of executive outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, told CBS MoneyWatch. “We’re also having lots of individual conversations with companies that are letting us know to expect future layoffs.”

He added, “So for me, there is more reason to be pessimistic about the labor market than optimistic we’ll see some major bounce back.”

Here are three charts that could point to a serious downturn in the U.S. job market.

Fewer workers are getting hired

Overall, U.S. employers in 2025 have added fewer jobs on a monthly basis compared with the pace of gains in recent years, when companies sought to expand as the economy roared back from the pandemic. In 2024, employers hired an average of 168,000 workers each month, but that has slowed to an average of 35,000 over the past three months, Powell said on Friday. 

The risk is that the labor market could weaken from here, which could lead to “sharply higher layoffs and rising unemployment,” Powell said. 

The slowdown could spur the Fed to cut its benchmark interest rate, policymakers’ main tool for energizing the economy and job growth, at its meeting next month for the first time since December 2024. Lowering rates could bolster the labor market because it would make it cheaper for consumers to borrow, driving spending, for businesses to invest, including by adding workers. 

More long-term job seekers

Another troubling sign is a recent surge in long-term job seekers, or people who have been searching for a job for more than 27 weeks. In July, about 1.8 million Americans had been looking for work for more than 27 weeks, a jump of about 64% from three years earlier and 20% from a year ago. 

It may not get easier to find work anytime soon, given signs from employers that they intend to continue to cut jobs, Challenger said.

“Don’t take the summer off” from looking for new work, he advised job-hunters. “It’s hard to imagine a scenario where the labor market will be better in three to six months.”

A jump in unemployed young workers

At the same time, young workers are also having more trouble finding their first jobs, which has been blamed on everything from slowing economic activity this year to employers adopting artificial intelligence in place of entry-level workers. 

To be sure, the nation’s unemployment rate remains low, at 4.2%. Yet that statistic is backward-looking, reflecting the labor market’s strength in previous months — it says little about economic conditions moving forward. 

Meanwhile, for new college graduates the current job market amounts to “a perfect storm,” said career coach Tracey Newell.

“Companies are limiting new entry-level roles, and AI is replacing many traditional ‘starter’ jobs,” she added, noting that it isn’t unusual for employers these days to receive hundreds of job applications for a single position. 

In Might 2027, NASA’s Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope will launch to house. Appropriately named after the “Mom of Hubble,” the telescope will use its 2.4-meter (7.9 ft) huge area of view major mirror and superior devices to research the deeper mysteries of the cosmos. Roman will spend 75% of its observing time over its five-year major mission conducting three core group surveys chosen by the scientific group. Amongst them, Roman will conduct a High-Latitude Time-Domain Survey (HLTDS) to detect tens of 1000’s of sort Ia supernovae.

Astronomers will use these “normal candles” to measure the speed of cosmic growth and check theories concerning Darkish Vitality. This mysterious drive was first theorized by astronomers and cosmologists within the Nineteen Nineties to elucidate the accelerating growth of the Universe. The survey will make the most of Roman’s Wide-Field Instrument (WFI), a 300-megapixel multi-band seen and near-infrared digital camera that can seize an space 200 occasions bigger than the Hubble Space Telescope and with the identical picture sharpness and sensitivity.

Measuring the Cosmos

To measure distances on cosmological scales, scientists depend on what is called the “Cosmic Distance Ladder,,” the place every wrung corresponds to a unique measuring approach. For objects situated inside a number of hundred thousand to some million light-years, astronomers will use variable stars (Cepheid Variables or RR Lyrae Variables) as a “normal candle” to conduct parallax measurements. For objects which are a number of dozen to some hundred million light-years distant, nothing lower than a Kind Ia supernova will suffice for the standard candle.

Kind Ia supernovae are particularly helpful as a result of astronomers understand how inherently vivid they’re at their peak (aka. intrinsic luminosity). By evaluating this to their noticed brightness, scientists can decide how distant they’re. By measuring their redshift, the extent to which it’s elongated because it passes by way of house, scientists can measure the speed of cosmic growth. As well as, Roman’s sensitivity and excessive decision will permit astronomers to look at supernovae that occurred as much as 10 billion years in the past (ca. 3 billion years after the Huge Bang), increasing the noticed timeline of cosmic growth by greater than twice.

Masao Sako, the Arifa Hasan Ahmad and Nada Al Shoaibi Presidential Professor of Physics and Astronomy on the College of Pennsylvania, was co-chair of the committee that outlined the Excessive-Latitude Time-Area Survey. As he indicated in a House Telescope Science Institute (STScI) press release:

Roman is designed to search out tens of 1000’s of sort Ia supernovae out to better distances than ever earlier than. Utilizing them, we are able to measure the growth historical past of the Universe, which is determined by the quantity of darkish matter and darkish power. Finally, we hope to grasp extra concerning the nature of darkish power. We have now a partnership with the ground-based Subaru Observatory, which can do spectroscopic follow-up of the northern sky, whereas Roman will do spectroscopy within the southern sky. With spectroscopy, we are able to confidently inform what sort of supernovae we’re seeing.

Latest observations by the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) revealed an enormous inhabitants of significantly vivid and pink galaxies that existed throughout Cosmic Daybreak (ca. lower than 1 billion years after the Huge Bang). These “little red dots” (LRDs), as they’ve come to be identified, stunned astronomers since they have been brighter and extra plentiful than accepted cosmological fashions would predict. Webb’s early observations additionally revealed that the Universe expanded sooner than these fashions predicted, prompting new theories about “Early Darkish Vitality” (EDE).

Furthermore, latest findings from the Darkish Vitality Survey (DES) counsel that the affect of Darkish Vitality could also be weakening over time. If true, it will have critical implications for our present cosmological fashions, which predict that cosmic growth will proceed till the Universe experiences a situation generally known as “warmth demise,” the place the final of the celebrities die. By detecting sort Ia supernovae as much as 11 billion light-years away, Roman may check these and different theories concerning this mysterious, theoretical drive.

This infographic describes the Excessive-Latitude Time-Area Survey that will probably be performed by NASA’s Nancy Grace Roman House Telescope. Credit score: NASA’s Goddard House Flight Heart

Discovering Supernovae

The HLTDS will probably be break up into two imaging “tiers” within the northern and southern skies, consisting of a large tier overlaying a bigger space of greater than 18 sq. levels, concentrating on objects throughout the previous 7 billion years of cosmic historical past. There can even be a deep tier that can deal with smaller areas (6.5 sq. levels) for longer time intervals to detect fainter objects that existed as much as 10 billion years in the past. To detect transient objects, the HLTDS will start with a 15-day commentary interval the place Roman will go to many cosmic fields to determine a baseline for comparability.

This will probably be adopted by 180 days of observing the identical fields at common intervals, largely in the course of the center a part of its 5-year major mission. This course of, stated Sako, is named picture subtraction, the place photographs are taken of a area, and something static or unchanging is subtracted from new photographs of the identical area to isolate new issues. The survey can even embrace an prolonged part the place observing fields will probably be revisited each 120 days to seek for objects that change over longer intervals.
This can permit Roman to look at a few of the most energetic and longest-lasting transient occasions and objects that existed as much as one billion years after the Huge Bang.

These latter supernovae range in brightness extra slowly because of the time dilation attributable to cosmic growth. “You actually profit from taking observations over the whole five-year length of the mission,” stated survey co-chair Brad Cenko of NASA’s Goddard House Flight Heart. “It permits you to seize these very uncommon, very distant occasions which are actually arduous to get at every other means however that inform us rather a lot concerning the situations within the early Universe.”

The HLTDS is one among three core group surveys, the others being the High-Latitude Wide-Area Survey (HLWAS) and the Galactic Bulge Time-Domain Survey (GBTDS). Collectively, these surveys will assist map the Universe with a readability and depth that has by no means been achieved. Roman’s achievements can even complement these of the ESA’s Euclid mission, which is presently observing objects in our Universe from as much as 10 billion years in the past, additionally for the aim of measuring the affect of Darkish Vitality.

Additional Studying: STScI

A combat over taxes shoppers pay for hashish merchandise has prompted a standoff between uncommon adversaries: child-care advocates and the authorized weed {industry}.

On July 1, California’s hashish excise tax elevated from 15% to 19% as a part of a political deal struck in 2022 to assist stabilize the fledgling authorized market. However the {industry} now says the rise is untenable as it faces a pointy decline in income and unfair competitors from the rising illicit market.

An industry-sponsored invoice shifting by the Legislature — and already handed by the Meeting — would get rid of the tax improve and decrease the speed again to fifteen% for the following six years. This would cut back by $180 million yearly the tax income that the state contributes towards legislation enforcement, youngster care, companies for at-risk youth and environmental cleanup.

The losses embody about $81 million yearly that may have particularly funded extra sponsored child-care slots for about 8,000 youngsters from low-income households.

“They’re selecting the hashish {industry} over youngsters and youth,” mentioned Mary Ignatius, government director of Mother or father Voices California, which represents dad and mom receiving state subsidies to assist pay for youngster care.

Little one care faces setbacks

The stress over taxes for authorized weed versus youngster care — each industries in disaster — highlights the inherent pitfalls of funding necessary social companies with “sin taxes,” whether or not it’s alcohol, weed or tobacco — funding that consultants say is usually unstable and unsustainable.

Have interaction with our community-funded journalism as we delve into youngster care, transitional kindergarten, well being and different points affecting youngsters from start by age 5.

The measure’s subsequent cease is the Senate. All payments within the Legislature have to be handed by Sept. 12, and the governor should signal them by Oct. 12.

“We are able to each assist the authorized hashish {industry} and shield youngster care. If the measure reaches the governor’s desk and is signed into legislation, we are going to work with the Legislature to make sure there are not any cuts to youngster care because of this coverage change,” mentioned Diana Crofts-Pelayo, a spokesperson for Gov. Gavin Newsom.

However it’s unclear the place cash to backfill the losses would come from, because the state grapples with declining funds and federal funding cuts.

The cash from hashish taxes represents a fraction of California’s $7-billion annual youngster care finances. However as federal cuts to social companies for low-income households, together with Head Begin, proceed, any potential loss creates a way of panic amongst youngster care advocates who say California must be shoring up income choices proper now — not decreasing them.

“Each single greenback wants to stay within the packages which might be serving our youngsters and households. What might appear to be a small quantity to some is every part for advocates who’re combating for it,” mentioned Ignatius.

The previous decade has been a time of progress for youngster care advocates, because the state rebuilt a baby care {industry} decimated by cuts through the Nice Recession. California has greater than doubled spending on youngster care because the recession low, added about 150,000 new sponsored youngster care slots, eradicated the charges paid by households, elevated pay for youngster care staff and added a brand new public faculty grade degree for 4-year-olds.

However regardless of these efforts to bolster the market, California’s youngster care {industry} nonetheless suffers from low pay for staff, unaffordable prices for households, and a scarcity of areas for infants and toddlers.

The ready checklist for sponsored youngster care slots continues to be so lengthy that some dad and mom have taken to calling it the “no hope checklist,” mentioned Ignatius. Those that be a part of the checklist know they might wait years earlier than a spot opens up, and by that point their youngster might already be in kindergarten or past.

Jim Keddy, who serves on an advisory committee to assist decide what packages the tax will finance, opposes the proposed discount.

“In the event you don’t work to advertise and maintain on to a funding stream for youngsters, somebody ultimately takes it from you,” mentioned Keddy, who can also be government director of Youth Ahead, a youth advocacy group.

The hashish {industry}, nonetheless, argues that whereas the causes the tax helps could also be worthwhile, market circumstances are so abysmal that it can’t climate a rise.

Authorized hashish {industry} struggles to stay afloat

“It’s unhappy that the hashish {industry} is being pit in opposition to social packages, childhood packages and academic packages,” mentioned Jerred Kiloh, president of United Hashish Enterprise Assn. and proprietor of the Larger Path dispensary in Sherman Oaks. “The truth is, if our authorized {industry} retains declining, then so does their tax income.”

In 2022, when the hashish {industry} agreed to extend the excise tax, quarterly hashish gross sales had been at their peak. The settlement supplied the brand new {industry} momentary reduction by eliminating the cultivation tax handed by voters underneath Proposition 64, the 2016 initiative that legalized hashish. In change, state regulators would have the ability to improve the excise tax after three years to make the change income impartial.

However since then, gross sales have plunged to their lowest ranges in 5 years, due partially to the rising illicit market that’s siphoning off gross sales from authorized dispensaries.

In L.A., Kiloh mentioned that between state and native taxes, his authorized dispensary prospects find yourself paying 47% in taxes on their buy. But when they shopped as a substitute at any of the hundreds of shops in L.A. promoting hashish merchandise and not using a license, they might keep away from state and native hashish taxes totally.

“A 30% improve in an excise tax that’s already egregious is simply sort of the breaking level for lots of shoppers,” mentioned Kiloh.

Even earlier than the excise tax hike went into impact, simply 40% of the hashish consumed in California was obtained from the authorized market, in line with the California Division of Hashish Management.

The measure to drop the excise tax, AB564, obtained widespread assist from Meeting members, together with stalwart supporters of early childhood schooling like Meeting Majority Chief Cecilia Aguiar-Curry (D-Winters), chair of the Legislative Ladies’s Caucus.

“Revenues from authorized gross sales of hashish are already dropping and if we preserve elevating the tax they’ll drop much more. That penalizes hashish companies who’re doing the best factor and dealing throughout the authorized market. And, it makes unlawful gross sales from cartels and criminals extra aggressive,” she mentioned in an announcement. “We have to fund our children’ schooling by the State Basic Fund, but when we need to complement schooling and youth packages, hashish tax {dollars} will solely exist if we regular the authorized market and go after these unlawful operators.”

How dependable are sin taxes?

Lucy Dadayan, a researcher who research sin taxes on the Tax Coverage Heart, a nonpartisan assume tank based mostly in Washington, D.C., mentioned the California predicament displays a bigger drawback with sin taxes.

If a sin tax is profitable and consumption drops — because it has with tobacco — “the tax base shrinks. And within the case of hashish, there’s the added wrinkle {that a} excessive tax price can push shoppers again into the illicit market, which additionally reduces income,” she mentioned.

This isn’t the primary time companies for the state’s youngest youngsters have been affected by reductions in a sin tax.

In 1998, California voters slapped cigarettes with a hefty surcharge to stress people who smoke to surrender their behavior. The state used the cash to fund “First 5” organizations in each county, that are devoted to enhancing the well being and well-being of younger youngsters and their households. However the much less individuals smoked over time, the much less cash was obtainable for early childhood packages, and the First 5 system now finds itself confronting an existential crisis as it faces a quickly declining income supply.

In the meantime, the important social companies like youngster care that come to rely on sin taxes are inclined to get an increasing number of costly, making a “mismatch” within the tax construction versus the necessity, mentioned Dadayan.

“Within the quick time period, these taxes can increase some huge cash and assist construct public assist for legalization or regulation. However in the long run, they’ll depart necessary packages susceptible due to shifting consumption patterns,” she mentioned.

This text is a part of The Instances’ early childhood schooling initiative, specializing in the training and growth of California youngsters from start to age 5. For extra details about the initiative and its philanthropic funders, go to latimes.com/earlyed.