The risk of a China war over Taiwan is steadily rising as the balance of military power in the Taiwan Strait has shifted in China’s favor since 2020. This shift became evident when Alex Azar, the highest-ranking U.S. cabinet official in more than four decades, visited Taiwan, prompting China’s People’s Liberation Army (P.L.A.) to conduct large-scale military exercises around the island. Since then, China has significantly increased its military activities around Taiwan, with thousands of sorties and complex air and naval exercises.

As a military analyst specializing in China and Taiwan, I am deeply concerned about the dangers posed by China’s military presence near Taiwan. Both Taiwan and the United States need to take meaningful action to deter China from escalating the situation further. The lack of transparency in Taiwan’s response and the sense of complacency in Washington and Taipei only embolden Beijing.

China’s military activities inside Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone have increased significantly, with the number of breaches rising over the years. The escalating tensions have strained Taiwan’s defenses and led to policy confusion regarding how to respond to Chinese provocations. The lack of transparency in sharing information about these activities further complicates the situation and raises public concern in Taiwan.

The recent election of a new president in Taiwan presents an opportunity for a more transparent approach to Beijing’s military aggression, similar to the Philippines’ strategy in countering Chinese actions in the South China Sea. In Washington, there is bipartisan support for Taiwan, but specific responses to China’s military activities are still lacking.

The United States must make it clear to China that its military activities near Taiwan are unacceptable and could lead to a war. Washington should work closely with Taipei to devise more effective ways to deter Chinese provocations and ensure Taiwan’s readiness to defend its sovereignty. With America’s strategic focus on other conflicts worldwide, it is essential not to overlook the growing threat to Taiwan.

Ben Lewis (@officialben_l) is an independent defense analyst specializing in China and Taiwan military and security affairs. He is co-founder of PLATracker, a site that tracks Chinese military activity and development.

The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: [email protected].