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What are the factors behind the spread of avian flu?
An “apocalyptic” mass mortality event that has left thousands of sea lions and elephant seals dead on the beaches of South America is raising alarms among some California sea mammal experts who fear similar scenes could play out along California’s Pacific Coast and other continents as the H5N1 bird flu continues its march across the globe.
The highly pathogenic avian influenza virus has become notorious for its devastating affects on wild and domestic bird populations over the last four years, but only recently has it inflicted so many deaths in a mammal population.
Up until now, the ability of the virus to jump from mammal to mammal has been limited, but the scale of infections and deaths in South America has raised troubling questions about whether something has changed.
While it remains unclear whether this particular strain of H5N1 has improved its ability to pass easily between mammals, such a development would have potentially devastating consequences for endangered and non-endangered species alike.
The disease “presents an existential threat to the world’s biodiversity,” wrote Chris Walzer, executive director of health for the Wildlife Conservation Society in a January statement, noting that the scene of dead elephant seals could “only be described as apocalyptic.”
According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the H5N1 viruses circulating in birds “are believed to pose a low risk to the general public in the United States; however, people who have job-related or recreational exposures to infected birds may be at higher risk of infection and should take appropriate precautions outlined in CDC guidance.”
The World Health Organization has also deemed the risk of human-to-human transmission to be low, and notes that candidate vaccines have been developed for pandemic preparedness.
Yet the speed with which the virus has destroyed once-thriving animal populations is breathtaking, said Marcela Uhart, a wildlife veterinarian with UC Davis’ One Health institute, who is based in Argentina.
In October, the mortality rate for newborn elephant seal pups reached 96% on one beach in Argentina — astronomically higher than the 0.8% mortality rate observed there in 2022.
“Ten days and it’s done. There’s nothing left alive,” Uhart said.
Die-offs have also been observed in South American dolphins and fur seals. And the virus is practically knocking on Antarctica’s front door, where more than 100 million birds, including colony-living penguins, and marine mammals congregate.
“There’s climate change and habitat destruction,” which are taking their toll on the planet’s wildlife species, said Rebecca Duerr, an avian veterinarian with International Bird Rescue in Long Beach. “And then this. It’s grim.”
In California, some experts say they worry about the vulnerability of sea lions and sea otters.
“California has been spared some of the huge die-off events being seen somewhere else in the world. But we still have species that are very vulnerable to it. We’re not out of the woods by any stretch of the imagination,” Duerr said.
Colony nesting of seabirds and breeding of marine mammals occurs all along the California Coast, the Channel Islands and Farallon Islands. They are seasonally populated by such species as terns, sea lions and sea otters, among others.
“There’s a whole lot of concern still for what will happen in the bigger picture over time,” she said. “This summer is breeding season, the time that other areas of the world have seen huge die-offs at breeding colonies.”
The effects wouldn’t be limited to just the infected animals either, Duerr said. These animals are critical within wider ecosystems. Guano produced from breeding bird colonies provides nutrients for marine invertebrates and fish, for instance.
And if sea otters were to suffer such losses, that would endanger the health of California’s vast kelp forests, which would be left prey to sea urchins, said Christine Johnson, professor of epidemiology and ecosystem health at UC Davis.
And although Southern and Northern hemisphere populations of marine mammals don’t have much, if any contact, Johnson said the world is changing so quickly, we can’t really be sure about anything.
“The distribution of marine species is largely dictated on where their food goes, which itself is dictated by ocean trends and warming,” Johnson said. “Are there species that are now overlapping that hadn’t been before, based on climate or other factors?”
She said forces such as climate change and habitat destruction could have played a role in the virus’ geographical expansion, as well as its initial and sustained grasp on wildlife.
“There’s increasing evidence that pandemics that come from wildlife, in particular, are increasing in frequency,” Johnson said. “There’s not a lot of segregation or separation between wild animals and their pathogens” and domestic animals and people.
Until recently, highly pathogenic avian influenza, or HPAI, was considered strictly a poultry disease. It would flare up here and there — primarily in Asia — and get stomped out quickly by killing all the birds on an infected farm.
But in 2002, the virus jumped to wild birds, and in 2005, it had spread to Eastern Europe, where seven people were infected after de-feathering wild swans. Four of the people died. Nine years later, the disease reached North America — presumably via Alaska, where birds from around the world migrate and feast during the summer. And although it died down for a bit in Canada and the U.S. — flaring up occasionally in Asia, Europe and Africa — it came back with a vengeance in 2021.
Since that time, not only have hundreds of millions of domestic birds been culled, but countless numbers of wild birds and animals have contracted the virus.
Julianna Lenoch, the national coordinator of wildlife services for the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, said that while scientists are waiting for genetic information from South America, there is no “evidence that is of high concern yet in the United States, but I think watching mammal spillover and potential mammalian spread is something the global community is looking for.”
The agency routinely samples wild birds, and only samples mammals in which there is suspicion.
“We pick them up from state agencies or wildlife rehabilitation facilities or from someone who has an indication of suspicion … so, what we have is probably an undercount,” she said.
But so far, the situation in North America is different from the “craziness” being seen in South America.
In the United States and Canada, the only mammals that have gotten the disease — such as foxes, skunks, coyotes and bears — are those known to scavenge on dead birds. There is no indication there is any mammal-to-mammal passage.
News
Is now the right time to invest in gold as prices have cooled?
The price of gold has climbed to record highs recently and has remained strong through much of April. And, that growth continued until the precious metal traded at around $2,390 per ounce on April 19, 2024. But since, growth in the price of the precious metal has cooled, with gold’s price now hovering around $2,300 per ounce.
This lull in gold’s price may represent an investment opportunity.
In general, investing is centered around buying assets when prices are low and selling them when prices are high – generating a profit on the difference between the two. So, considering the declines in gold’s price over the past few days, now may be the time to make your investment. But is buying gold during this lull in prices really a good idea?
Compare your gold investment options among leading brokers now.
Gold prices have cooled. Should you buy in now?
With gold’s price down from recent highs, you may be wondering if now is the right time to buy in. There are several reasons the dip in gold’s price may represent an opportunity to buy. Here are some of the biggest:
Prices may rise again
If looking at a gold price chart shows anything for certain, it shows that changes in the overall growth of the medal come in fits and spurts. Periods of price growth are typically followed by periods of declines and vice versa.
But with inflation rising in recent months – and with gold’s reputation as a safe-haven asset that can hedge against inflation – it only makes sense that the price of the precious metal will eventually start to head up again in the future. While attempting to time that directional change may be tricky, buying the precious metal while the price is down gives you the opportunity to take advantage of any upward movement that may be ahead.
Add gold to your portfolio now before prices have a chance to rise.
You may be able to make a quick profit
Gold isn’t known as an asset in which you can earn a quick return, but in today’s market, that may be the case. Don’t forget that in January, gold was trading at just $2,000 per ounce. And, by mid-April, the commodity’s price had climbed to around $2,400 per ounce. That’s about 20% growth in a matter of months, much of which happened since March 1 – an impressive climb for any investment asset.
Perhaps more importantly, gold’s price growth through the beginning of 2024 shows that the commodity doesn’t have to be a buy and hold style investment that you keep in a safety deposit box or precious metal depository for years to come. There’s also the possibility that the commodity’s price could climb further ahead, making it a compelling way to potentially generate a quick profit.
There are other benefits of investing in gold
There are other benefits of investing in gold that have little to do with the price growth seen thus far in 2024 – or the lull in prices seen over the past couple of days. Those benefits include:
- Inflation protection: Gold has long been considered an inflation hedge, and for good reason. When inflation drives the prices of consumer goods and services up – and the value of the dollar down – gold’s price tends to rise. So, it could be used to maintain the value of your portfolio during inflationary economic conditions. That’s important in today’s economic environment as stubborn inflation continues to weigh on the value of the dollar.
- Portfolio diversification: Gold’s price doesn’t always move in the same pattern that bonds or stocks do. So, mixing a reasonable amount of gold into your portfolio (up to 10% of your portfolio assets) as a diversifier could protect you from losses should one or more of your traditional portfolio assets fall in value. “If you have less than 5% – 10% of your net worth in commodities & FX (forex), you should absolutely consider adding exposure to gold and other precious metals,” says Vijay Marolia, money manager and managing partner at the wealth management firm, Regal Point Capital.
The bottom line
Gold’s price has fallen from recent highs – which may represent an opportunity to tap into growth ahead. However, gold isn’t simply a “buy while it’s low and sell while it’s a high” kind of investment opportunity. The commodity can also protect your portfolio from the stubborn inflation we’ve seen thus far in 2024 while acting as a diversification tool that could increase your risk-adjusted portfolio returns. So, consider adding gold to your portfolio today while it has the potential to grow in value.
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Is now the right time to invest in gold as prices have cooled?