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What is the Duration of Advanced Civilizations’ Attempt to Communicate With Us?

Research on technosignatures is gaining momentum, with numerous papers delving into the nature and potential longevity of signals from highly advanced extraterrestrial civilizations. While we have yet to discover any such civilizations, the possibility of their existence remains a tantalizing prospect. A recent paper by Amedeo Balbi and Claudio Grimaldi, esteemed professors at the Universita di Roma Tor Vergata and the Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne, respectively, offers a new statistical model to shed light on how long we may need to search before encountering a technosignature – and their findings are quite intriguing.

Prior research suggested that any civilization capable of creating a technosignature detectable by us would likely be significantly older than our own. The reasoning behind this assertion lies in the enduring nature of such technosignatures, which can persist over vast time scales and travel immense distances through space. However, a key assumption in previous studies is that these technosignatures would endure indefinitely, which may not always be the case. Many forms of technosignatures, such as radio signals or artificial lights, necessitate ongoing support and maintenance, implying that they may not persist for as long as previously believed.

Fraser discusses the idea of technosignatures.

In their paper, Balbi and Grimaldi introduce a statistical approach that more accurately reflects the dynamics of technosignatures in the cosmos. They posit that civilizations actively maintain their technosignatures for a period before eventually allowing them to fade out, reducing the likelihood of our detecting them. This statistical model clusters observable technosignatures towards the earlier stages of a civilization’s existence, highlighting the transient nature of these signals.

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While long-lasting technosignatures like the thermoradiation of a Dyson sphere may exist, they are likely outnumbered by actively supported signals from living civilizations. The researchers employ a rigorous statistical analysis, incorporating Lindy’s Law, which suggests that the life expectancy of a technology increases with its age. This skew in the distribution of technosignature lifespans implies that short-lived signals are more common than enduring ones.

Dr. David Kipping discusses his previous research on technosignatures.

These theoretical findings provide valuable insights into the search for extraterrestrial intelligence, prompting further discussion and refinement of statistical models. As researchers continue to analyze SETI data and refine their methodologies, the quest to detect technosignatures from advanced civilizations remains an ongoing endeavor. Perhaps one day, we will catch a glimpse of these signals and make contact with beings beyond our world.

Explore Further:
Balbi & Grimaldi – Technosignatures Longevity and Lindy’s Law
Kipping, Frank and Scharf – Contact inequality: first contact will likely be with an older civilization
UT – The First Civilization We Contact Will Have Been Around Much Longer Than Humanity
UT – After all of This Time Searching for Aliens, is it The Zoo Hypothesis or Nothing?

Lead Image:
DALL-E Image of an advanced civilization.

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Is now the right time to invest in gold as prices have cooled?

Now may be the time to buy gold following a recent lull in its price.

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The price of gold has climbed to record highs recently and has remained strong through much of April. And, that growth continued until the precious metal traded at around $2,390 per ounce on April 19, 2024. But since, growth in the price of the precious metal has cooled, with gold’s price now hovering around $2,300 per ounce.

This lull in gold’s price may represent an investment opportunity.

In general, investing is centered around buying assets when prices are low and selling them when prices are high – generating a profit on the difference between the two. So, considering the declines in gold’s price over the past few days, now may be the time to make your investment. But is buying gold during this lull in prices really a good idea?

Compare your gold investment options among leading brokers now.

Gold prices have cooled. Should you buy in now?

With gold’s price down from recent highs, you may be wondering if now is the right time to buy in. There are several reasons the dip in gold’s price may represent an opportunity to buy. Here are some of the biggest:

Prices may rise again

If looking at a gold price chart shows anything for certain, it shows that changes in the overall growth of the medal come in fits and spurts. Periods of price growth are typically followed by periods of declines and vice versa.

But with inflation rising in recent months – and with gold’s reputation as a safe-haven asset that can hedge against inflation – it only makes sense that the price of the precious metal will eventually start to head up again in the future. While attempting to time that directional change may be tricky, buying the precious metal while the price is down gives you the opportunity to take advantage of any upward movement that may be ahead.

Add gold to your portfolio now before prices have a chance to rise.

You may be able to make a quick profit

Gold isn’t known as an asset in which you can earn a quick return, but in today’s market, that may be the case. Don’t forget that in January, gold was trading at just $2,000 per ounce. And, by mid-April, the commodity’s price had climbed to around $2,400 per ounce. That’s about 20% growth in a matter of months, much of which happened since March 1 – an impressive climb for any investment asset.

Perhaps more importantly, gold’s price growth through the beginning of 2024 shows that the commodity doesn’t have to be a buy and hold style investment that you keep in a safety deposit box or precious metal depository for years to come. There’s also the possibility that the commodity’s price could climb further ahead, making it a compelling way to potentially generate a quick profit.

There are other benefits of investing in gold

There are other benefits of investing in gold that have little to do with the price growth seen thus far in 2024 – or the lull in prices seen over the past couple of days. Those benefits include:

Inflation protection: Gold has long been considered an inflation hedge, and for good reason. When inflation drives the prices of consumer goods and services up – and the value of the dollar down – gold’s price tends to rise. So, it could be used to maintain the value of your portfolio during inflationary economic conditions. That’s important in today’s economic environment as stubborn inflation continues to weigh on the value of the dollar.
Portfolio diversification: Gold’s price doesn’t always move in the same pattern that bonds or stocks do. So, mixing a reasonable amount of gold into your portfolio (up to 10% of your portfolio assets) as a diversifier could protect you from losses should one or more of your traditional portfolio assets fall in value. “If you have less than 5% – 10% of your net worth in commodities & FX (forex), you should absolutely consider adding exposure to gold and other precious metals,” says Vijay Marolia, money manager and managing partner at the wealth management firm, Regal Point Capital.

The bottom line

Gold’s price has fallen from recent highs – which may represent an opportunity to tap into growth ahead. However, gold isn’t simply a “buy while it’s low and sell while it’s a high” kind of investment opportunity. The commodity can also protect your portfolio from the stubborn inflation we’ve seen thus far in 2024 while acting as a diversification tool that could increase your risk-adjusted portfolio returns. So, consider adding gold to your portfolio today while it has the potential to grow in value.

Joshua Rodriguez

Joshua Rodriguez is a personal finance and investing writer with a passion for his craft. When he’s not working, he enjoys time with his wife, two kids, two dogs and two ducks.