In a surprising turn of events, Portugal is gearing up for a new election after former Prime Minister António Costa resigned amidst a corruption investigation last year. This move has thrown the country into a state of uncertainty, with the possibility of a shift in power for the first time in over eight years.

Initially, Costa’s Socialist Party seemed poised for another term, given their strong majority in Parliament. However, the corruption probe involving lithium exploration concessions tainted Costa’s government, leading to his resignation.

As the election approaches, Portugal faces the potential of a minority government and the looming presence of a hard-right populist party, Chega, which has gained traction in recent years.

What set off the vote?

The catalyst for the upcoming election was Costa’s resignation amid allegations of corruption related to lithium exploration concessions, hydrogen production, and a data center construction.

The investigation into these activities has strained Portugal’s potential for foreign investment, particularly in the crucial lithium sector, essential for the EU’s green energy transition.

While Costa has not been formally charged, the cloud of suspicion around his government prompted his resignation to uphold the integrity of the prime minister’s office.

Who is running now?

In the upcoming election, the Socialist Party and the Democratic Alliance, a center-right coalition led by the Social Democratic Party, are the main contenders.

Polls indicate a close race between the Socialists and the Democratic Alliance, with Pedro Nuno Santos leading the Socialist Party after Costa’s departure.

Notably, the rise of Chega, a hard-right party advocating for stricter anti-corruption measures, has added a new dynamic to the election. While Chega may not have the same mainstream support as the leading parties, their presence could influence the formation of the government.

If the Democratic Alliance secures a victory, forming a coalition with Chega could prove challenging, potentially leading to an unstable minority government.

How popular is the far right?

The emergence of Chega marks a shift in Portugal’s political landscape, as hard-right parties gain momentum in a traditionally centrist country.

While Chega’s support has grown in recent years, its influence in shaping Portugal’s future remains uncertain.

The upcoming election will determine the country’s trajectory amid economic challenges, including soaring house prices and a cost-of-living crisis.

With these pressing issues at stake, voters are looking for a government that can address their everyday concerns and provide stability in a time of uncertainty.