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Will We Ever Make it to Mars?
You know, if you take away the lack of air and water, the weaker Sun, the lower gravity, and the toxic soil, Mars isn’t all that bad of a place to live. And there are certainly worse places to live, like, I don’t know, Ohio (I’m allowed to say that because I grew up there). But there’s been a big push in the past two decades to not just go to Mars and visit, like we did with the Moon fifty years ago, but to stay there. Put down roots. Establish ourselves. Build a colony or a settlement.
We’ve got the Mars Foundation, we’ve got Occupy Mars, we’ve got Mars One. All of them propose grand plans to build a human settlement, a city, on the Red Planet within the next generation.
I’m going to give it to you straight, because if you’re watching this show then I bet you’re the kind of person that appreciates a no-nonsense approach.
We’re not going to Mars anytime soon.
I know there are some…announcements…floating around out there, and at the time of this recording WHO KNOWS what the current administration will propose, that say that we should go to Mars in 2026 or 2029. I can tell you with utmost confidence that the people throwing out those dates aren’t doing it because they have a well thought-out plan of technological improvement to make those reasonable targets.
They’re doing it because those are the next open launch windows. That’s it. Let’s go to Mars in 2026…because that’s the next time we can go to Mars. It’s like saying “hey everyone I have a plan: we should all go to Barbados at 7:19 tomorrow morning”…because that’s when the next flight is leaving, not because you’ve actually developed a plan to go to Barbados. Or even have the money. Or a swimsuit.
But while we can be pessimistic about the short term, we can still be optimistic about the far future. There is no law of physics that makes a Martian settlement impossible. Sure, it will be perhaps the toughest engineering challenge EVER, but it’s not IMPOSSIBLE – and that’s a big difference.
So let’s dive into what a Martian city might actually look like and how we might be able to build one. But first, we need to talk about how a city on Mars will be completely unlike anything we have on Earth.
Because it’s Mars.
Let’s start with the raw numbers. The average temperature on Mars is minus 63 degrees Celsius, or -80 Fahrenheit. While it can get warmer than that, up to something approximating room temperature in the low-lying valleys during the summer months, it can also get much colder than that, down to -153 Celsius or -225 Fahrenheit.
Remember, Mars is a planet cold enough to freeze not just water, but also carbon dioxide.
So number one, any human settlement is going to have to grapple with extreme, bitter, year-round cold. Even the most remote and extreme places on Earth, like the South Pole, don’t reach temperatures that low.
And the South Pole has the advantage of you know, having air to breathe, which Mars lacks. The air pressure on Mars is less than 1% of the air pressure on Earth at sea level. And what air is DOES have is mostly carbon dioxide, which is great news…if you’re a plant.
Now it’s not that complicated to build a pressurized vessel to maintain a regular, breathable atmosphere against what is essentially a vacuum. The International Space Station does it all the time, and it’s pretty big…and it’s also designed to hold no more than a few people at any one time. And it’s right there in Earth orbit, making resupply and – if needed – evacuation relatively straightforward, at least as straightforward as anything goes in space.
But Mars isn’t close. The average distance to Mars is 140 million miles, or 225 million kilometers. With chemical rockets, a journey there takes MONTHS. Just think about it: usual crew rotations for the space station are around that same length of time. And the Apollo missions to the Moon were much, much shorter. So a typical astronaut stay at hotel ISS is roughly equal to JUST THE JOURNEY TO MARS, not including actually, you know, being there and coming back home.
And even then, we have to wait for a launch window to open up when the Earth and Mars are on the same side of the solar system, which happens roughly every two years.
Sorry Mark Watney, but rescue is not going to be an option. Nor is resupply. If something goes wrong or the settlers runs out of some critical component or ingredient…that’s it. They’re going to have to figure it out on their own.
Adding to their daily headaches will be a constant exposure to cosmic rays. This is deadly radiation coming in from deep space, from exploding stars and black holes and whatnot. On Earth our atmosphere does a wonderful job of absorbing most cosmic rays, but even then they’re able to slip through to the surface. You are struck by a cosmic ray about once every second, and these cosmic rays contribute to somewhere between 1-3% of all incidents of cancer.
Mars has no atmosphere. Which means the Martian surface gets a lot of radiation. And just simple metal shielding isn’t going to cut it. That’s because a cosmic ray can just strike the metal and create a shower of subatomic particles within the shelter. You need a lot of stuff – rock, water, gas, whatever – between you and the dangerous sky.
Speaking of rocks, yeah they’re toxic. And not like social media personality toxic, I mean actually toxic. Poisonous. Dangerous to touch, breathe, ingest, or otherwise be around. The soil is full of perchlorates, which is sometimes used as an ingredient in rocket fuel. Any food that’s grown on Mars will have to use treated soil, which will use who knows how much water.
Oh, that’s right, water. Yes, there’s water on Mars, but it’s almost entirely frozen. There might be some liquid pockets buried deep under the polar ice caps, which isn’t anything remotely resembling accessible, so we’ll just have to leave those be. The rest of the frozen water is buried underground, which means…mining. A lot of digging up dirt, heating it, sorting it, and separating the water.
Mining itself is going to be a huge problem for any long-term habitation. On the Earth we’re used to just finding ore veins and taking a whack at it. I mean I suppose the actual process of mining is more complicated than that but I’ve played a lot of Minecraft so I feel like I understand the basic gist. On Mars, this isn’t quite so easy. Without plate tectonics to mix up the crust, we have no idea if there are rich concentrations of metals, which means that anything heavy will have to be shipped in from Earth.
And we need to talk about the dust. Martian sand. It’s course and rough and irritating and it gets everywhere. No, wait, actually it’s opposite. It’s been blowing around Mars for billions of years, and that constant motion has ground the dust grains down into almost perfectly smooth, almost microscopic bits. And when dust storms kick off, they can literally encircle the entire globe.
In 2018 just such a global dust storm killed NASA’s Opportunity rover. The storm blocked out the Sun for so long that the rover couldn’t get enough juice from its solar panels, and it went quiet. Any future settlers will likely need to rely at least in part on solar power, which means they will be in a constant fight with the dust starting at day 1.
Like I said, we’re not going to Mars anytime soon, because we haven’t solved…let me check my notes…ah, that’s right, ANY OF THESE PROBLEMS. And we’re not going to solve them in just a few years.
But that doesn’t mean we can’t make progress.
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Kyiv, Ukraine, Hit in Russian Missile Attack
Buildings rattled in the Ukrainian capital for hours early Sunday. Russia launched an Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile for only the third time in the war.
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SpaceX’s Next-Gen Starship Passes Its First Flight Test Despite Snags
SpaceX’s next-generation Starship V3 rocket got off to a glorious start for its first test flight, and although not all of its engines fired fully according to plan, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk said the mission “scored a goal for humanity.”
This was the 12th Starship launch, but the first one since SpaceX completed a thorough redesign of the rocket’s Super Heavy first-stage booster, the second stage (known as Ship), the Raptor rocket engines and the launch facilities at SpaceX’s Starbase in south Texas.
Super Heavy lit all 33 of its Raptor V3 engines at liftoff, and successfully sent Ship on its way over the Gulf of Mexico. But after stage separation, Super Heavy shut down its engines prematurely. As a result, the booster tumbled through the atmosphere to an uncontrolled but safe splashdown in the gulf. SpaceX had planned for a controlled splashdown but hadn’t planned to recover the booster, so it was no great loss.
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Only five of the six Raptor engines on the second-stage Ship remained lit for the next phase of the test flight. “I wouldn’t call it a nominal orbital insertion but … it’s within bounds,” SpaceX commentator Dan Huot said.
During the coast phase of the mission, SpaceX had to pass up an opportunity to try relighting one of the engines in space. It was, however, able to follow through with the deployment of 20 satellite simulators, plus two “Dodger Dog” satellites that were modified to test new technologies for SpaceX’s Starlink V3 satellites.
One of the modified satellites captured video looking back at Ship as it drifted away, and then transmitted the video back to Earth via SpaceX’s Starlink network. Huot said the video monitoring procedure would come in handy for making in-space inspections of Ship’s heat shield during future flights. “That’s one we’ve been chasing for a while, so [it’s] really cool to see it,” he said.
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About an hour after launch, Ship made a fiery atmospheric re-entry over the Indian Ocean. Onboard cameras showed the glow of superheated plasma surrounding the rocket stage, followed by occasional flashes of flame. In the moments just before splashdown, Ship fired up two of its Raptor engines — as opposed to the three that would typically be used for a landing — and flipped itself upright just in time for the end.
When the rocket hit the water, it burst into flames. Meanwhile, hundreds of SpaceX employees watching the webcast burst into applause. “USA, USA, USA!” they chanted.
“We guaranteed excitement at the beginning of the show, and I would say Starship delivered,” mission commentator Jake Berkowitz said.
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SpaceX CEO Elon Musk was quick to congratulate his team for “an epic first Starship V3 launch and landing.”
“You scored a goal for humanity,” he wrote in a posting to X.
SpaceX’s team members emphasized that they didn’t expect everything to go right the first time. “This is a flight test,” Huot said. “We’re trying to intentionally find where our limits are.”
The day before, SpaceX had to postpone launch when a pin on the launch pad’s quick-disconnect arm failed to release itself properly. Engineers made changes to the ground-system software and hardware — including some welding at the pad — to fix the issue for today’s launch.
The 407-foot-tall Starship V3 is slightly bigger than the previous version of SpaceX’s super-rocket, but the biggest changes are on the inside. Here are a few highlights of the redesign:
- Streamlining the design of the methane-fueled Raptor V3 engines and increasing their liftoff thrust from 507,000 to 551,000 pounds per engine. Super Heavy is now capable of 18 million pounds of liftoff thrust, which makes it more than twice as powerful as the Apollo-era Saturn V or its modern-day successor, NASA’s Space Launch System.
- Putting an integrated hot-stage ring between the booster and the second stage, which is expected to streamline reusability.
- Replacing the previous four stabilization fins on Super Heavy with three larger, heavier grid fins, which should improve control and durability.
- Beefing up Starship’s satellite deployer, which is nicknamed the “Pez Dispenser.” The deployer is designed to deal out as many as 60 Starlink V3 satellites per mission.
- Installing shorter “chopsticks” on the launch tower, which is expected to make it easier to catch Starship’s stages when they fly themselves back to the launch pad.
- Fortifying the base of the pad and improving the flame-diverter system, which should cut down on the time and energy required for post-launch refurbishment.
In the near term, SpaceX is banking on the Starship system to facilitate the expansion of its Starlink satellite broadband network — which is currently the only profitable part of the SpaceX’s business, according to documents filed this week in preparation for the company’s initial public offering.
Putting Starship into operation is a key step in Musk’s plan to send a million solar-powered satellites into space to process data for artificial-intelligence applications. It’s also a key step for a wide array of other commercial space ventures that are hoping to take advantage of Starship’s larger payload capacity and cheaper access to space.
A modified version of Starship is due to serve as the lunar lander for NASA’s Artemis 4 mission, which is currently scheduled for as soon as 2028. NASA is already deep into preparations for an Artemis 3 mission that’s aimed at testing the Starship lander and/or Blue Origin’s Blue Moon lander in low Earth orbit next year.
NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman alluded to that mission today on SpaceX’s webcast. “We’re looking forward to meeting up next year in Earth orbit,” he said.
In the longer term, Musk envisions creating a fleet of Starships that could transport thousands of spacefarers to settlements on Mars. SpaceX hasn’t yet scheduled any Mars missions — but this week, crypto investor Chun Wang announced that he intends to be on Starship’s first Mars flyby, whenever it takes place. “It will light the fire. It will ignite the imagination, and it will build the momentum,” he said.
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How will the Orange County chemical crisis be resolved? Here is what we know
• The temperature inside the failing tank has risen to 90 degrees, up from 77 a day earlier. The boiling point of the toxic chemical is 101 degrees Celsius.
• The main hope to avoid an explosion is to keep spraying water on the tank, keeping temperatures cooler.
• It’s possible an explosion can be avoided if the chemical reaction occurring inside the tank is slowed down.
The battle to keep a highly toxic chemical from exploding took a step backward Saturday.
The temperature in a critically failing tank filled with a highly toxic chemical and at risk of exploding in Orange County is rising, not falling, officials said.
By Saturday morning, the temperature in the pressurized tank at an aerospace firm in Garden Grove was 90 degrees, up from 77 degrees a day earlier. Temperatures are increasing about a degree per hour, Craig Covey, an Orange County Fire Authority division chief, said Saturday morning.
But with the chemical crisis in its third day, new details are offering more insight into how it could be resolved, though no one is sure when.
The question, experts say, is whether officials can somehow deal with the dangerous chemicals in a way that does not end in a blast or the type of spill that causes environmental degradation.
Chemical leak at GKN Aerospace
The Garden Grove facility neighbors an elementary school and residential neighborhood.
Trying to cool damaged tank
An increase in temperature raises the risk of an explosion.
The boiling point of the chemical inside the tank, methyl methacrylate, is 101 degrees Celsius. The temperature gauge on the tank detects temperatures only up to 100 degrees. Officials haven’t disclosed at what particular temperature would they think that an explosion is imminent.
It’s not necessarily the case that the tank would explode at 101 degrees, said Elias Picazo, assistant professor of chemistry at USC.
“It depends on the integrity of the tank, and the composition of the tank, and the pressure capacity of the tank,” Picazo said. “But, yes, above 100, the pressure starts to increase dramatically, because the liquid phase becomes gas phase, and gas takes up any space available. It’ll take up more volume and become highly pressurized.”
What does it mean that the temperature is rising?
The fact is that the temperature in the tank indicates that the liquid MMA molecules — monomers, essentially a bunch of single molecules — are reacting with one another to form polymers, forming a solid, according to Picazo. “The reaction is releasing heat. That’s going to initiate more reaction to happen, so it might even cascade.”
The big fear is producing what’s known as “thermal runaway reactions.”
Covey has said that if the temperature in the tank exceeds a certain threshold “we know the tank is going into thermal runaway, and we’re going to pull everybody out of the area, make sure it’s safe, and let the tank do what it’s going to do.”
The fact that some liquid in the tank is reacting to become a solid is probably what happened to gum up the valve leading into the tank. The primary solution to resolve this crisis would’ve been to pump a neutralizing agent into the problem tank, quenching it and making it no longer explosive.
But that valve is clogged up, and so there is no way to get the neutralizing agent inside the tank. Nor is there a way to slowly drain the tank of the MMA toxic chemical.
Keeping the tank as cool as possible could be a workable approach to prevent an explosion.
How are officials gaming out scenarios?
There remains the possibility that the tank will still explode or rupture in a massive leak that could send the chemical to foul up waterways and the ocean. Officials have marked a huge evacuation zone — anywhere from about 1 to 3 miles from the tank — affecting an estimated 40,000 residents covering portions of the cities of Garden Grove, Anaheim, Buena Park, Cypress, Stanton and Westminster.
It is clear that the spraying of water on the tank is helping.
Even though the temperature is rising inside the tank, not putting any cool water on it at all would have allowed the tank’s interior temperature to rise far more quickly, Picazo said.
So the main solution right now is for crews to do their best to keep the tank as cool as possible — and buy time.
How keeping the tank cool could avoid an explosion
Continuing to pour cool water on the tank could allow the liquid chemical inside to cure at a slower rate — becoming a solid at a slower speed — and reduce the buildup of pressure inside the tank, Covey said.
“Like an ice cube that freezes from the outside in — this stuff cures, it heats up and cures from the outside in. While it’s doing that process, it’s building that pressure,” Covey said.
The tank has some capacity to hold in some pressure. There is empty space between the surface level of the MMA chemical to the ceiling of the tank.
“We’re hoping that that space can absorb a slower cure rate and not over-pressure and blow up,” Covey said.
In other words, continuing to cool the tank could slow down the chemical reaction occurring inside in a way that avoids an explosion.
Picazo agreed.
“One of the best-case scenarios is to let the [MMA] monomers react, but you do it in a controlled way,” he said.
“Maybe if it’s slow enough, you can form solid within the tank and cause the monomers, the reactive monomers, to stay apart from one another.
“If they don’t come into contact, therefore they cannot react,” Picazo said. “You need contact for reactivity, and you can’t have contact if you have solid state.
At that point, “then you can start to think about other solutions of how to quench the unreacted starting material.”
Can the worse-case scenario be prevented?
Firefighters said they’re hopeful they can prevent an explosion.
“We’re optimistic,” Covey said. “We’re bringing people in from all over the country, talking to people all over the place, trying to come up with additional options.
“Letting this thing just fail and blow up is unacceptable to us.”
Why crews erroneously thought temperatures were cooling inside the tank
Officials on Friday had thought spraying water was actually cooling down the problem tank — and not merely reducing the speed at which the temperature was increasing.
On Friday evening, Picazo said drone thermometers indicated the tank was at 61 degrees, and the goal was to get the tank down to 50 degrees, which would be its “happy place.”
But as it turns out, the drone thermometers were detecting the temperatures only on the outside of the problem tank, not its inside.
Officials discovered the error of their assumptions when a crew of workers returned overnight to the problem tank, which has an estimated 7,000 gallons of MMA in it. Adjacent to the problem tank is a second tank, which has 15,000 gallons of chemicals in it, but is not at immediate risk of failure.
Nonetheless, officials wanted to inject a neutralizing agent into that second tank, so that if the primary failing tank explodes, it doesn’t cause an even greater blast by igniting the second tank. So there was an overnight operation of chemists and first responders sent in to try to get that done, which was attempted even though it put them “in harm’s way,” Covey said.
When they arrived, they were able to again manually read the internal temperature gauge of the failing tank. (That gauge isn’t visible unless someone is there to read it; it’s covered by the cooling sprays of water and cannot be seen from a distance, nor by putting a drone with a camera near it, Covey said.)
And that’s when the crew realized that the tank’s internal temperature was at 90 degrees, and that relying on drones to estimate the temperature from afar showed only the temperature of the outside of the tank, not the inside.
Staff writers Hailey Branson-Potts, Hannah Fry and Eric Licas contributed to this report.
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