Almost halfway through September, the 2025 playoff picture is taking shape — but it might not be as set as it seemed just a couple of weeks ago.

No team has secured a postseason berth or even clinched a division, though a number of contenders have more than a 99% chance of making the playoffs. But races that seemed as if they might be over at the end of August are heating up again.

The Giants, who have won 13 of their past 17 games, have closed the gap on the Mets in the National League wild-card race and sit only two games back of the third spot, after it seemed as if San Francisco was out of the race entirely last month. The Rangers are on a similar track in the American League, just 1½ games back of the Mariners for the final wild card despite having multiple stars sidelined by injuries.

And there also are still a few exciting division races. The Yankees and Red Sox could still catch Toronto in the AL East, Seattle is only one game back of Houston in the AL West and the Dodgers and Padres remain locked in a battle in the NL West.

What else might the final weeks of the regular season bring?

Our expert panel has ranked every team based on a combination of what we’ve seen so far and what we already knew going into the 162-game marathon that is a full baseball season. We also asked ESPN MLB experts Jesse Rogers, Alden Gonzalez and David Schoenfield to weigh in with an observation for all 30 teams.

Week 23 | Second-half preview | Preseason rankings

Record: 89-58
Previous ranking: 1

A series loss to the Rangers this week won’t dampen the spirits in Milwaukee after the Brewers’ weekend road sweep of the Pirates. Pitching was the name of the game in Pittsburgh as the Brewers gave up a total of five runs in the three games — none of which were started by top pitcher Freddy Peralta. A healthy Milwaukee rotation has a plethora of choices for the postseason from Quinn Priester to Brandon Woodruff to Jacob Misiorowski to Jose Quintana — any of whom could pitch after Peralta. With a first-round bye that gets the Brewers straight to the division round on the horizon, they can set up their rotation any way they see fit. — Rogers

Record: 86-60
Previous ranking: 2

Kyle Schwarber has reached the 50 home run mark in a season for the first time in his career and it couldn’t have come at a better time, considering he’s a free agent this winter. After signing a four-year, $79 million deal with the Phillies when he was 29 in 2022, Schwarber is going to be one of those rare guys who signs a bigger deal in his early-to-mid 30s. He has shown no signs of aging, as evidenced by his most productive years coming after turning 30 in 2023. Schwarber is in line for a contract well over $100 million. — Rogers

Record: 82-64
Previous ranking: 3

The Dodgers welcomed Max Muncy back Monday, then Alex Vesia on Tuesday and Tommy Edman on Wednesday. Brock Stewart and Dalton Rushing, meanwhile, should return within the next week or two. The Dodgers have been shockingly subpar for a while now, going 1-5 on a trip through Pittsburgh and Baltimore last week and sitting three games below .500 since the start of July. But they maintain that their best baseball remains ahead of them. It needs to be. The Dodgers will welcome the Phillies to L.A. for three games next week. The Dodgers basically have to sweep Philly to have any hope of grabbing the No. 2 seed and avoiding the wild-card round. — Gonzalez

Record: 84-62
Previous ranking: 5

As the Tigers look for somebody to step up as the No. 2 starter behind Tarik Skubal for the playoffs, Casey Mize has had back-to-back solid starts against good offensive teams after posting a 7.20 ERA over his previous eight starts. He held the Mets to one run in five innings and then the Yankees to two runs in six innings (on two solo home runs) — and he didn’t walk a batter in either start. Meanwhile, Kyle Finnegan, who came over from the Nationals at the deadline, continues to excel in the bullpen, having not yet given up a run in his 14⅓ innings with the Tigers (and giving up only three hits with 19 strikeouts). — Schoenfield

Record: 83-62
Previous ranking: 6

George Springer continues to have an under-the-radar great offensive season. He ranks third in the majors in wRC+ at 160 — just ahead of Juan Soto, Cal Raleigh and Kyle Schwarber. He’s also hitting .300 — there are only seven players hitting .300 and three of them are on the Blue Jays — and closing in on 100 runs scored. Over the past decade, only Nelson Cruz and David Ortiz had a wRC+ that high at age 35 or older. The key? Springer opened his stance a bit this year, creating a more vertical bat angle that has produced the lowest groundball rate of his career. — Schoenfield

Record: 80-65
Previous ranking: 7

The Yankees won two of three at home against Toronto over the weekend to move to within two games of the Blue Jays atop the AL East — only to give it back Tuesday in a dreadful performance against the Tigers that drew boos from the home fans.

Tied 2-2 in the seventh, the Tigers scored eight runs before the Yankees recorded an out as Fernando Cruz and Mark Leiter Jr. got scorched. The inning featured four walks, a hit batter and a wild pitch. Cruz had given up only one run in seven appearances since returning from the injured list and had pitched his way into a high-leverage role, but now manager Aaron Boone will have to wonder about his consistency in a bullpen that continues to frustrate. — Schoenfield

Record: 83-63
Previous ranking: 4

Injuries are a current storyline for the Cubs, but they are focused on October, so getting All-Star right fielder Kyle Tucker (calf) and closer Daniel Palencia (shoulder) right is their priority for the rest of September. Palencia needed a reset after imploding in his last game before leaving because of soreness. His absence actually underscores how important right-hander Brad Keller is — and will be — to the team heading into the playoffs. Keller is their tough out-getter and will get innings at the most important times of the game. That potentially includes the ninth inning, if Palencia shows further cracks when he returns. — Rogers

Record: 81-66
Previous ranking: 8

Aroldis Chapman‘s season keeps getting better and better — as in, one of the best relief seasons ever. Before giving up one run and two hits in getting the loss on Wednesday, he not only hadn’t given up a run over his previous 17 appearances (a span of 14⅔ innings) but hadn’t given up a hit either. Batters are 2-for-52 against him since J.T. Realmuto‘s home run July 23. Since May 28, Chapman has given up only three runs (two earned) in 34⅓ innings. He has blown only one save opportunity all season and batters are hitting .122 off him — which is just above Kirby Yates‘ .113 average from last season as the lowest ever with a minimum of 50 innings pitched. — Schoenfield

Record: 79-67
Previous ranking: 9

For as talented as the Padres’ roster looks since the trade deadline, their offense still lacks punch. And it’s not hard to see why. Since the start of August, Fernando Tatis Jr., Luis Arraez and Manny Machado — the three players who make up the top three spots in the lineup — are slashing a combined .227/.297/.338. Machado, in particular, has produced only a .193 batting average in that stretch, and he’s just 4-for-37 since the start of September. Padres manager Mike Shildt expressed confidence in his star third baseman recently, telling reporters: “He’ll figure it out. He’s Manny Machado.” He needs to be. — Gonzalez

Record: 79-67
Previous ranking: 11

On Tuesday, Luis Garcia exited his second start since a 28-month recovery from Tommy John surgery because of elbow discomfort, after throwing his fastball around 90 mph. Garcia will undergo further imaging to determine his prognosis, but, well, it doesn’t sound good. And the Astros can ill afford more pitching injuries. Three of their starters — Ronel Blanco, Hayden Wesneski and Brandon Walter — have required season-ending elbow surgeries, and fellow starter Spencer Arrighetti will sit out at least the rest of the regular season because of an elbow injury. Three relievers — Kaleb Ort, Bennett Sousa and All-Star closer Josh Hader, who’s dealing with a strained capsule in his shoulder — will, too. — Gonzalez

Record: 76-70
Previous ranking: 10

The Mets can kiss any shot at the NL East title goodbye after getting beat up by Philadelphia this week. Can they still hold onto a wild-card berth? They simply can’t shake the teams behind them, mostly because their starting staff is a mess, ranking in the bottom third of the majors in ERA since the All-Star break. Sean Manaea was knocked around as the Phillies got to him for four runs in five innings Tuesday. It actually wasn’t a terrible start for him, as he has struggled much of the season and was coming off a rough outing against the Tigers. Can he find his rhythm again before October? Doubts remain. — Rogers

Record: 78-68
Previous ranking: 12

The Mariners surged coming out of a busy trade deadline, winning nine of 10. But then they dropped 15 of 21 games, seemingly letting a premium opportunity to claim their first division title in 24 years slip right past them. They’ve since surged again, winning five straight — including a 28-run barrage in two games against the Braves last weekend — to put them just one game back of the Astros for the top spot in the AL West. The Mariners will be in Houston for three games starting Sept. 19. That series might decide the division. — Gonzalez

Record: 77-70
Previous ranking: 13

The Rangers have vaulted back into the race thanks, in large part, to players who weren’t expected to have much impact, if any, on their season. With Marcus Semien, Corey Seager, Adolis Garcia and Evan Carter all on the IL, it has been the likes of Michael Helman, Alejandro Osuna, Cody Freeman, Dustin Harris and Ezequiel Duran picking up the slack offensively. Jacob Latz, meanwhile, has filled in admirably for injured starter Nathan Eovaldi. The Rangers thrived amid a tough homestand against the Astros and Brewers and now embark on what could be a season-defining trip to play the Mets and, once again, the Astros. — Gonzalez

Record: 74-72
Previous ranking: 17

The sheer randomness of this 2025 season is probably best exemplified by the Giants. They were 41-30 on June 14, then went out and traded for Rafael Devers and looked to be legitimate championship contenders. Then, they went 13-25 through the end of July, traded away veteran players and essentially punted on the season. They then won five of seven, jumping back into the mix. That was followed up by losing 11 of 13 and falling way out of it. Since then, the Giants have a 13-4 record and currently sit only two games back of a wild-card spot. Seven of their next 10 games will come against the Dodgers. Amazing. — Gonzalez

Record: 74-71
Previous ranking: 18

The Guardians are suddenly back in the thick of the wild-card race, leaping over Tampa Bay and Kansas City after winning the final three games against the Rays and then taking the first two games against the Royals to begin the week. Against the Royals on Monday, Slade Cecconi took a no-hitter into the eighth inning before giving up a leadoff single. On Tuesday, Joey Cantillo matched Cecconi with eight scoreless innings. It was the first time Cleveland starters had pitched eight innings on consecutive days since Zach Plesac and Aaron Civale in 2020. — Schoenfield

Record: 74-72
Previous ranking: 14

Other than an 11-2 win over the Twins on Saturday, the Kansas City offense has sputtered the past week as the Royals failed to make up ground in the wild-card race (and saw the Guardians pass them). If they do end up falling a game or two short, the decision to push Jac Caglianone to the majors in June will be a key failure. Among players with at least 150 PAs, Caglianone has the third-lowest wRC+ in the majors — unfortunately, he’s tied with teammate Michael Massey, who has received even more playing time. Caglianone is 3-for-17 with two RBIs since returning from the IL and is hitting .176/.364/.176. — Schoenfield

Record: 74-72
Previous ranking: 15

Cincinnati has had every chance to close the gap on the Mets in the wild-card race, but each time, the Reds have squandered it. Their bullpen just hasn’t been able to match their starting staff since the All-Star break, ranking in the bottom half of the majors in ERA over that span. Last Wednesday’s defeat in Toronto is a good example. Cincinnati was up 5-0 but eventually lost 13-9. And though the Reds’ 19-21 record in one-run games doesn’t sound awful, if they miss out on the postseason by a slim margin, some of those losses will undoubtedly linger in Cincinnati. — Rogers

Record: 72-73
Previous ranking: 16

The Rays’ wild-card momentum peaked last Thursday with a win over Cleveland, putting them just two games out of the third wild-card spot, but the Guardians then took the next three games in the series as Tampa Bay scored only four runs in the three losses. Jonathan Aranda‘s injury has been a big blow to the offense. When he played his last game on July 31, the Rays were averaging 4.6 runs. Since then, they’ve averaged under 4.3. — Schoenfield

Record: 73-74
Previous ranking: 19

Zac Gallen passed Robbie Ray for third place on the D-backs’ all-time strikeout list Tuesday — while starting against none other than Ray, now a member of the Giants — and sits only 66 shy of Brandon Webb’s 1,065 for second place. Whether he will actually get the opportunity to catch him is the interesting part. Gallen, 30, is a free agent at season’s end, but he’ll also be coming off a subpar 2025 campaign. The D-backs might face a tough decision on whether to extend the qualifying offer to Gallen this offseason. And he will certainly face a tough decision on whether to take it. — Gonzalez

Record: 72-75
Previous ranking: 20

While giving runway to their young position players this season has worked out well for the Cardinals, the same can’t be said about their rotation. Younger starters Matthew Liberatore and Andre Pallante haven’t exactly put up zeros on the scoreboard. Pallante, especially, has been vexing, as he was coming off a decent 2024 campaign in which he posted a 3.78 ERA. That number jumping to 5.28 in 2025 tells the story of his season, even though his walk rate is the lowest of his career. Unfortunately, the exit velocity on balls hit off him is a career high, so being in the zone more hasn’t translated to outs as much as he and the Cardinals might have liked. — Rogers

Record: 68-77
Previous ranking: 25

The Orioles had one of the most dramatic wins of 2025 — for any team — on Saturday. Jackson Holliday broke up Yoshinobu Yamamoto‘s no-hit bid with two outs in the bottom of the ninth and then the Orioles rallied for three more runs off the Dodgers’ bullpen for a walk-off 4-3 victory. Baltimore is the first team in the expansion era (since 1961) to be no-hit for 8⅔ innings and trailing in the game, and then win it. Oh, and the O’s also had walk-off wins on Friday (Samuel Basallo‘s home run) and Tuesday (Basallo’s RBI hit in the 11th). — Schoenfield

Record: 65-81
Previous ranking: 23

Spencer Strider looked better in an eight-strikeout performance against the Cubs on Tuesday, but he still isn’t close to his previous form. Strider’s fastball has lost its edge so he’s trying to get outs in different ways — at least in this first season since recovering from his latest elbow surgery. The eight K’s came one start after a game in which he whiffed only one batter, leading him to shave his signature mustache. Strider’s 4.86 ERA tells the story of his season as does his pedestrian (for him) 114 strikeouts in 107⅓ innings pitched. — Rogers

Record: 67-80
Previous ranking: 24

While a lot of the attention has been absorbed — rightly — by Nick Kurtz, teammate Jacob Wilson is once again making a run at the batting title. Since returning from the IL on Aug. 22, Wilson has collected 24 hits in 67 at-bats, raising his batting average to 319 — now tied with Aaron Judge for the American League lead. No A’s player has won the batting title since Ferris Fain claimed a second straight in 1952. “It’s definitely a goal for the end of the season,” Wilson told MLB.com. — Gonzalez

Record: 67-79
Previous ranking: 21

Jakob Marsee followed his rookie of the month award with a hot start to September, as he had hits in six of his past seven games. He has become a mainstay in the Marlins’ lineup after hitting .352 in August. Marsee continues to show power as well, slugging two doubles and a home run this week against the Nationals. He won’t win Rookie of the Year, but he has set himself up to be the everyday center fielder in Miami for the foreseeable future. — Rogers

Record: 69-77
Previous ranking: 22

Mike Trout has been sitting at 398 career home runs since Aug. 8, while in the midst of a 28-game homerless drought that has now surpassed his previous career high (27 in 2015). During that stretch, he is slashing just .213/.380/.255. The 34-year-old will finish the season having played in more games than he has in six years, but he’s also on pace for his lowest OPS (currently .789) since his 40-game major league debut in 2011. Trout has been relegated to designated hitter since sitting out most of May because of discomfort in his twice surgically repaired left knee. — Gonzalez

Record: 64-82
Previous ranking: 26

It hasn’t been the best of seasons for Royce Lewis, as his numbers are down from 2023 and 2024, although he has at least managed to play his most games in a season. A product of JSerra Catholic High School in San Juan Capistrano, California, Lewis grew up an Angels fan and went to games at Angel Stadium but had played only one game there — and that was in high school. He finally played his first big league game there Monday — and hit two home runs. “I made my dream come true,” he said. — Schoenfield

Record: 64-82
Previous ranking: 27

Among the several deficiencies at the plate for the Pirates, the catcher position is at the top of the list. They have only eight home runs from catchers this season, tied for last in MLB. And remember, they employ two catchers who were drafted No. 1 and No. 2 in their respective drafts. Henry Davis is hitting .161 this season and Joey Bart has only two home runs in 301 plate appearances. Add that to the list of issues the Pirates need to address this winter. — Rogers

Record: 60-85
Previous ranking: 28

Washington finally woke up in the second half of the season, winning a road series against the Cubs in Chicago over the weekend and then one in Miami this week. Josh Bell led the way, hitting four home runs, including a ninth-inning blast that helped win Sunday’s game against the Cubs. It was a stunner as the Nats scored five times in the final inning off of Chicago’s closer, turning a potential loss into one of the best wins of their season. Outfielder Daylen Lile also had a big week, hitting .409 with a 1.390 OPS. Maybe there is hope for the Nationals next season as they employ a host of talented young players. — Rogers

Record: 56-90
Previous ranking: 29

Last Friday’s win over the Tigers was the sixth in a row for the White Sox — their longest winning streak since an eight-game streak in September 2022. Indeed, with a 6-2 record to start September, they have a chance at their first winning month since going 15-14 in May 2023. Rookie catcher Kyle Teel has been a big key to the recent success, hitting .362/.470/.623 with five home runs and 16 RBIs over his last 19 games. Teel, Edgar Quero, Colson Montgomery and Chase Meidroth each have at least 1.5 WAR. The last team with four rookie position players with at least 1.5 WAR? The 1946 Reds. — Schoenfield

Record: 40-106
Previous ranking: 30

The Rockies suffered triple-digit losses for the first time in their history in 2023, finishing with 103. On Sunday, they matched that total, securing a third consecutive 100-plus-loss season with 19 games still remaining. But their focus, with the youngest roster in the majors, is on process. As interim manager Warren Schaeffer told reporters recently: “The Rockies are a young team that is pushing every night to win ballgames and learning, and never giving in and moving forward to someday, hopefully soon in the near future, being a winning ballclub.” — Gonzalez