Two years into his NFL career, it’s not exactly looked promising for Michigan hero J.J. McCarthy.

The 2023 national championship-winning quarterback was handed the keys to the Minnesota Vikings, who selected him with the 10th overall pick of the 2024 NFL Draft, but it’s been a highly turbulent two years since. McCarthy missed his rookie season due to a meniscus tear, and then he struggled mightily in 2025 after earning the starting gig, even earning the mockery of fans for his proclamation that he had a Bruce Banner/Hulk-esque dynamic with a version of himself he deemed “Nine.”

That said, two years is not a particularly long span of time. Especially not for NFL quarterbacks, given we’ve seen Jared Goff, Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold all shed the “bust” tag and become high-end NFL starters in the last few years with other franchises. With that in mind, I think there is a similar pathway forward for McCarthy, because I don’t think his best professional football will be played in the Twin Cities.

Pre-draft, there was considerable buzz surrounding Minnesota as the “ideal” landing spot for McCarthy. And it’s not hard to see why. The Vikings were two years removed from a 13-win season, boasted a stellar receiving corps anchored by Justin Jefferson in his prime, multiple playmakers on defense and noted offensive guru Kevin O’Connell at the helm. On paper, everything McCarthy should’ve needed to succeed was already in place.

But I think the situation in Minnesota was a little bit more complicated, and it revolves around timing. In 2024, when the Vikings already had their roster assembled, the expectation was the franchise had entered “win now” mode, that they were a top quarterback away from raising the Lombardi and that McCarthy had been drafted to grow into that quarterback.

The contradiction, however, was McCarthy was never touted as the most pro-ready quarterback in the class. The discourse surrounding him during the draft cycle was consistently along the lines of him being a project who was going to need a few years to develop. So why was he expected to be the franchise’s messiah, then?

In any event, I don’t think McCarthy and the Vikings’ timelines are going to sync up at this point. Minnesota’s roster is getting older and they’ve brought in Kyler Murray as a bid at getting the most of a fearsome defense and a still-young Jefferson, Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson and Christian Darrisaw on offense. O’Connell is entering his fifth year as head coach without a playoff win to his name, and there’s a growing feeling he’ll be coaching for his job if that continues. The solution, then, for both McCarthy and Minnesota, is an amicable divorce.

From there, I think the next step for McCarthy would be to go somewhere he won’t start right away. Sitting him for his rookie season was likely always going to be the move regardless of his fitness — it’s a formula that worked for Carson Palmer, Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes and Jordan Love. But rehabbing from a meniscus tear changed the nature of his “year zero” in a way that did not benefit him; rather than working on things like footwork, poise and the other physical aspects of quarterbacking, he was relegated mostly to meetings and watching tape.

Those things are certainly important, but they’re imperfect substitutes for the physical development he should have gotten a chance at instead. As such, I think a second “year zero” where he has a chance to sit and actually learn from a veteran without being plagued with health is the reset he needs.

Then there’s the question of what a scheme change would do to bring out the best of him. The Vikings under O’Connell run a West Coast-style offense, and I don’t think that was ever an environment McCarthy would thrive in immediately. He certainly has an NFL-caliber arm, but he struggles with ball placement and touch; I’ve noted his persistent bad habit of putting too much strength on his throws. His pocket presence and vision also need work. I think at the moment, the best situation for him to be in is a play-action-heavy, run-first offense similar to what he operated in with the Wolverines. At the NFL level, McCarthy’s best trait has been his mobility and ability to scramble, and an offense that turns his legs into a weapon without relying on him to heavily pass the ball in short range could enable his development.

As for where specifically this leaves him, there are a couple of intriguing fits. The Atlanta Falcons are currently enmeshed in a rebuild that’s seemingly been going on since I was in middle school, but given the volatility of their quarterback situation, I could see them throwing a draft pick at the Vikings for McCarthy and letting him backup Michael Penix Jr. or Tua Tagovailoa for a year, then passing the reins of a Bijan Robinson-powered offense to him in 2027. Another option is the Indianapolis Colts, where McCarthy could take over from Daniel Jones if they decide that experiment has run its course by the end of the year.

The big caveat to all of this is on McCarthy’s health. He entered the NFL with a relatively lanky frame for a quarterback, but so far, his injury concerns have been worse than even detractors assumed at the start of his career. Last year, he missed playing time to three separate injuries, which hampered his ability to develop any sort of rhythm. To me, McCarthy’s injury issues are the biggest red flag in his player profile. Unfortunately, given my distinct lack of a medical degree, they’re also the one I’m least qualified to assess.

In summary, I think the jury is still out on whether McCarthy is going to be a good NFL quarterback. The first two years have been ugly, but I think the Vikings were the wrong fit for him both in terms of timeline and scheme. But I think a trade to somewhere he’s not under pressure to be a franchise savior and can play a style of football better suited to his strengths and weaknesses could potentially help him salvage his career and become the franchise quarterback that Michigan fans believe he can be.