With less than three months until Election Day, the general election fight for control of the US Senate is in full swing after a summer of upheaval and decisions in Democratic contests.
Democrats believe the political environment is working in their favor as voter sentiment towards President Donald Trump continues to sour. But the party is confronting a difficult map that requires them to win in deep-red territory while holding onto all their seats. That includes Michigan, where the party’s left flank will face a major test with moderate swing voters across the battleground state.
On the mood: The country is clearly frustrated with the president’s performance as his approval rating hit 34% in a recent CNN poll conducted by SSRS, matching the career low he saw at the end of his first term.
A record-high of 73% of US adults say he hasn’t paid attention to the country’s most important problems, and roughly two-thirds of Americans – 65% – say Trump’s policies have worsened economic conditions. Another troubling economic indicator emerged last week as the economy unexpectedly lost 23,000 jobs last month.
The president, coupled with concerns on the economy and Iran, could be a major drag on Republican candidates this cycle, but Trump doesn’t see himself as the problem.
“They’re not angry at me, but they are angry at Republicans,” he told Punchbowl News, noting he’s not on the ballot and acknowledging questions about whether his base will turn out in November.
Democrats are leading Republicans on the generic ballot by 8 points, among registered voters, a CNN poll conducted by SSRS showed, and by a 10-point margin, Americans call Democrats more than Republicans “the party of change” – though it is worth noting nearly half say that label does not describe either party.
Still, the combination of a favorable environment, an edge in enthusiasm and strong nominees that could have appeal in GOP-leaning states have put the Senate very much in play.
For now, nine states will likely determine control of the Senate next year. Democrats need to flip four of the six GOP seats on this list plus hold onto three of their own. Some states have shifted since last month’s list with movement seen in Georgia, where Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff holds the seat, and Texas, an open seat after GOP Sen. John Cornyn lost his primary.
Our ranking of the seats most likely to flip in November is based on CNN reporting, including conversations with strategists involved in Senate races, as well as our analysis of candidate fundraising, polling and the partisan environment in the states. The rankings are a snapshot of where the contests stand at this point in the cycle and will shift over the next three months as the general election comes into sharper focus.
North Carolina remains the state most likely to flip in November with Democratic nominee Roy Cooper in a strong position in the polls and money race against Republican Michael Whatley.
A Fox News poll released in late July found Cooper, a well-known former governor, up nine points over Whatley among North Carolina registered voters – 53% to 44%. The survey also found enthusiasm at a higher level among Democrats than Republicans in the state, which could prove advantageous for Cooper as he looks to mobilize voters as early voting kicks off next month.
Cooper’s campaign also is on stronger financial footing than Whatley, the former chair of the Republican National Committee. Cooper has brought in more than three times the amount Whatley has raised in the entire campaign, and the cash-on-hand disparity is even greater. Cooper has a war chest of $20.7 million compared to Whatley’s $3.5 million, second quarter fundraising reports revealed.
North Carolina has voted Republican on the presidential level in the past four presidential contests, but Cooper also won the governor’s seat in two of the years Trump carried the state. Democratic and Republican strategists believe the race will tighten in the coming months, but Cooper is still a clear favorite at this point.
2. Maine
A new layer of uncertainty was injected into the Maine Senate race last month as Democrats scrambled to replace their nominee, but the political dynamics of the state are keeping it near the top of the list of seats most likely to flip in November.
Sen. Susan Collins remains the most vulnerable Senate Republican this cycle and is the only GOP senator running in a state won by former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024.
Collins has won difficult races in the past and Republicans have spent months highlighting her accomplishments for voters. But she is contending with significant voter angst with Trump and the Republican Party overall even as she’s attempted to cultivate a brand independent of the president at times.
Democrats, on the other hand, are dealing with a late roster change after Graham Platner exited the contest following a sexual assault allegation that he denied. The party quickly coalesced around former state Senate President Troy Jackson, a fifth-generation logger from the same rural county as Collins.
A University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll conducted prior to Jackson officially securing the Democratic nomination found the Maine Democrat at 49% support among likely voters compared to 46% for Collins.
That poll and the quick Democratic embrace of his candidacy are bright spots for Jackson, who is now operating with a very compressed window to execute a campaign. Democrats hope his working-class and progressive bona fides will animate some of the same voters who gravitated towards Platner, whose controversies dominated much of the attention in the contest.
But Jackson has less than four months to re-introduce himself to voters after his campaign for governor earlier this year was unsuccessful. The first TV ad of his campaign highlights his background as a logger and labor organizer while criticizing Collins for “not helping us now.”
He also faces a significant fundraising deficit against Collins, who ended the second quarter with $11 million in the bank. Jackson’s team has said he’s raised $3 million since he formally entered the race. Outside groups on both sides plan to spend heavily on the contest.
Republicans have made clear they plan to put Jackson’s past alliance with Platner front and center in their messaging. A super PAC supporting Collins quickly turned an ad highlighting his past campaign appearances with the scandal-plagued Platner, which the GOP hopes will be a liability with swing voters and women. Democrats, meanwhile, plan to tie Collins to Trump, who Mainers rejected in each of his presidential runs.
Maine’s spot on this list could shift as the race takes shape, especially as the contest in the next state on our list comes into clearer focus. But for now, Maine remains at number two.
Michigan is giving Republicans their best chance of flipping a Senate seat in November – an outcome that would almost certainly derail Democrats’ hopes of winning the majority.
Democrats emerged last week from a bitter and expensive primary with a newly minted Senate nominee: Abdul El-Sayed, a former state health official who is about to test whether a progressive can win statewide in one of the country’s premier battleground states. He is facing off against Republican former Rep. Mike Rogers, who narrowly lost a Senate bid to Democratic Sen. Elissa Slotkin in 2024.
El-Sayed beat establishment favorite Rep. Haley Stevens, who saw more than $62 million spent on her behalf by outside groups. El-Sayed, a savvy communicator, campaigned on enacting Medicare for All and criticizing the role of corporate money in politics while taking specific aim at AIPAC, the pro-Israel group which poured more than $30 million into the state to boost his opponent.
El-Sayed’s victory marked the biggest success for progressives in a Democratic primary this year, but he won by a slim margin – fewer than 16,000 votes – a single percentage point.
That razor-thin victory highlights a challenge for El-Sayed going forward as he seeks to unite the party and draw in swing voters in the battleground state. In the hours after the race was called, national Democratic campaign groups quickly rallied around his candidacy as did Stevens and other Michigan officials.
But Republicans are betting some Democrats are unconvinced. On Friday, Rogers issued his own direct-to-camera appeal to disappointed Democrats, saying they “have a home” with his campaign and promising to work hard to earn their support.
As Democrats spent months in a bruising fight, Rogers did not face any competition for the GOP nomination, a factor Republicans believe has strengthened his standing for the fall. During a call with supporters earlier this summer, Rogers said his campaign is in “good shape” if El-Sayed is the nominee, suggesting he would prefer to face off against the progressive in November. It fed into the arguments from Stevens and her supporters that El-Sayed was out-of-step with the broader electorate of the swing state.
The GOP has moved quickly with their lines of attack against El-Sayed, portraying him as radical and extreme. They tied him to controversial figures like Hasan Piker, who has said Hamas was a lesser evil than Israel and America “deserved” 9/11, a comment the far-left Twitch streamer later backed away from.
Democrats argue Rogers is a weak candidate who was unable to win when Trump carried the state in 2024. Trump and the economy are expected to play heavily in their messaging strategy amid overall frustration with the president’s performance and an economic crunch hitting the state, from high gas prices and the impact of tariffs on the auto industry.
One bright spot for Democrats: The Democratic primary prompted more than 1.5 million voters to cast Democratic ballots, a record for any non-presidential Democratic primary going back to 1998. That Democratic turnout signals a level of enthusiasm within the party that could carry into November.
There is no credible polling showing where an El-Sayed-Rogers matchup stands. El-Sayed has outraised Rogers slightly, bringing in $14.5 million to the Republican’s $10.9 million over the course of their campaigns. But as of mid-July, Rogers had nearly $2 million more cash on hand – $4.4 million to $2.5 million for El-Sayed, who was waging a primary fight.
On Friday, El-Sayed’s campaign announced he raised $2.3 million in the 48 hours after his primary victory.
The Democratic-aligned Senate Majority PAC has pledged $20 million for TV spending in the state while the Republican-aligned Senate Leadership Fund has committed $45 million. AIPAC also has said they plan to stay involved in the general election fight to oppose El-Sayed.
Beyond the implications for 2026, the result in Michigan this November also stands as a key early gauge for both parties as they head toward the 2028 presidential election.
Of the states that Trump carried by double digits in 2024, Ohio with its battle of senators is the most likely to flip.
Democratic former Sen. Sherrod Brown who lost to Republican Bernie Moreno in 2024, continues to outraise Republican Sen. Jon Husted, who was appointed to the seat in January 2025. The most recent fundraising reports revealed the Ohio Democrat has a war chest of $16.2 million compared to Husted’s $9.4 million cash on hand.
Other dynamics of the race have not shifted much since our last rankings. The last New York Times/Siena poll conducted in June showed no clear leader in the contest. But both candidates have started to hone their messages in the summer months.
Brown this week launched an ad criticizing Husted on Medicaid cuts, and he’s run a trio of ads on data centers, trying to tap into voter frustration with electricity cost spikes linked to the AI-powering facilities. On the GOP side, Husted has run spots painting Brown as “way too liberal for Ohio” and dinging him on immigration.
Alaska’s competitive Senate race comes in fifth once again as Democrats remain optimistic about former Rep. Mary Peltola’s chances against GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan, who is seeking a third term.
The state’s open primary on August 18 will determine the four candidates on the ballot in November – with a potential wildcard in the form of another contender also named Dan Sullivan. If the retired school teacher were also to advance to the general election, Republicans are concerned it could create confusion among voters and possibly benefit Peltola. The November contest will be determined by ranked-choice voting if no candidate wins a majority outright.
Peltola has outraised Sen. Sullivan in the contest, bringing in $18.5 million since entering the race in January compared to the incumbent’s $11.7 million. But Peltola appears to be spending money at a slightly faster rate – ending July with $4.6 million in the bank while Sullivan had $7.3 million cash on hand.
Iowa could take on even greater importance to the Democrats’ Senate math if Republicans are able to flip Michigan, leaving the party looking for another target to get the net gain of four seats it needs to win the majority.
GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson has so far outpaced state Rep. Josh Turek in the money race, ending June with $6.7 million in the bank compared to her Democratic rival, who had $2.4 million after winning a contested primary.
The Democratic-aligned SMP has upped its spending plans in the state to $30 million, bringing it on par with the $29 million promised by the GOP-aligned SLF. Polls conducted earlier the summer showed a near-even contest.
Democrats are hoping frustration about the GOP’s handling of the economy, including tariff impacts on farmers, will prompt voters to break for Turek, a self-described “prairie populist.” At the same time, they’re aware of the challenging task ahead in a state Trump won by 13 points in 2024.
It wasn’t long ago that the state voted twice for Democrat Barack Obama in his two presidential runs. Turek’s campaign recently tried to tap into that nostalgia, releasing a video of Turek, a Paralympian who won two gold medals for the US men’s wheelchair basketball team, shooting hoops with the former commander-in-chief.
With the midterm cycle underway, the state is quickly becoming a visiting ground for potential presidential hopefuls. In May, Vice President JD Vance campaigned for Rep. Zach Nunn in Des Moines, while Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, who beat Trump in the state’s 2016 GOP caucuses, traveled to the state last month for a fundraiser for the state’s attorney general, warning of Democratic enthusiasm in this year’s contests.
Texas is moving up two spots on this ranking list amid signs the Senate battle in the Lone Star State is growing more competitive.
A Fox News poll released last month found a close contest between Democratic state Rep. James Talarico and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton among registered voters – 51% backing Talarico and 48% for Paxton – in line with other recent surveys that have shown the two candidates locked in a competitive race.
The Fox News survey also showed Democrats with an enthusiasm advantage over Republicans, and more voters expressed concerns about Paxton’s character than worry that Talarico is too extreme. Taken together, the findings represent a warning sign for Republicans in a state Trump carried by nearly 14 points just two years ago.
Talarico has proven to be one of the Democratic Party’s strongest fundraisers, raising $68.6 million since the start of his campaign and ending June with $21.5 million in the bank. Paxton has brought in $9.2 million over his Senate run and entered July with $1.8 million.
National Republican strategists say Paxton’s fundraising is picking up, but he will likely need additional help to make up the spending difference in a large state like Texas with expensive media markets.
The broader GOP will turn its attention to Texas next month as Trump hosts an unusual midterm convention in Dallas. But there have been no signs that any of the GOP-aligned groups are ready to send an injection of cash for Paxton’s campaign just yet.
“I’m optimistic that they’ll come in soon,” Paxton told Fox News on Sunday. “But we need help now,” he argued, pointing to Talarico’s strong ad spending.
That could change as the fall months approach, and MAGA Inc., the pro-Trump super PAC, may be one of the most closely watched outside entities as the group is sitting on $400 million of untapped funds. On the Democratic side, Senate Majority PAC also has not committed money to the contest.
In recent weeks, Paxton and Talarico both campaigned in towns along the US-Mexico border, an area heavily populated by Hispanic voters. Though Trump made significant gains with Latino voters in 2024, cracks have emerged in the GOP’s support with that voting bloc, which could be key in deciding the outcome of this Senate race.
New Hampshire stays in spot number eight on this month’s list as the fight to replace Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen remains competitive.
The most recent UNH Survey Center poll conducted in June showed no clear leader in a hypothetical match-up between Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas and GOP former Sen. John E. Sununu. Both men are favored in their primaries next month.
Pappas is outraising Sununu with the Democrat bringing in $13.4 million to Sununu’s $3.6 million (including a $1.1 million transfer) over the course of their campaigns. Pappas appears to have burned through money at a slightly faster rate as he ended June with $5.2 million while Sununu had $2.7 million in the bank.
But Pappas has also warned national Democrats not to take the state – where Harris won by just three points – for granted. “New Hampshire’s purple. It was Kamala Harris’ closest state, and the Sununu name has been a household name for a long time since before I was born,” Pappas told Punchbowl last month. “It’s going to be incredibly tricky.”
After Michigan, New Hampshire gives the GOP the next best chance of flipping a state at this point in the cycle, but they face some real challenges in making that a reality, including a 62% disapproval rating among registered voters of the president’s job performance.
The second change to this month’s rankings comes in Georgia, which has dropped to the bottom of our list of states most likely to flip.
Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff is the only Senate Democrat running for reelection in a state Trump won in 2024. On paper, that fact alone would make him one of the party’s most endangered incumbents and why the GOP had Georgia high on its target list from the start of the cycle.
But as the campaign has played out, Ossoff has emerged on stronger footing, and it may prove difficult for Republicans to make up enough ground to win here in November unless they are able to dramatically alter the current trajectory.
Ossoff continues to be a fundraising powerhouse, bringing in a total of $77.2 million since the beginning of last year and ending the second quarter with $42.6 million cash on hand. His GOP opponent, Rep. Mike Collins, has raised $6.6 million and ended June with $2 million in the bank. GOP committees plan to spend heavily in the contest, but Ossoff’s fundraising strength shows no signs of letting up.
This fundraising disparity comes on the heels of a June Fox News poll showing Ossoff up 13 points over Collins among registered voters in the state, though strategists in both parties believe this contest will tighten in the coming months.
Collins has come under the microscope in recent weeks after a report from CNN’s KFile revealed his son-in-law promoted White nationalist ideology and circulated antisemitic content online. Shortly after the report, the GOP congressman ended a press conference after repeatedly declining to answer questions about his relationship with his daughter’s husband.
Instead, Collins has tried to turn the tables on Ossoff, attempting to tie him to democratic socialists, but it’s unclear whether those attempts to define the Georgia Democrat will work.
In fact, two Republican mayors from conservative parts of the state last week endorsed Ossoff, another warning sign for Collins who needs the GOP to remain unified to make a serious run at defeating the Democratic incumbent.
In addition to these nine states, here are a few contests we’re keeping a close eye on in the coming months:
Kansas: Strategists in both parties are keeping tabs on the Kansas Senate race after a pastor with strong fundraising won the Democratic primary this month. Democrat Adam Hamilton, a United Methodist megachurch pastor, will face off against Republican Sen. Roger Marshall. Hamilton’s bid may still be a long shot, but Kansas has shown a willingness to buck its red-state status in recent years.
Montana: A critical deadline is approaching in the Montana Senate race as Monday marks the final day to drop out of the general election contest. The state features a three-way general election fight where the Democratic nominee Alani Bankhead and independent Seth Bodnar could split the vote, giving GOP nominee Kurt Alme a clear advantage to hold onto this Republican seat. But some Democrats would like to see Bankhead step aside so voters can coalesce around Bodnar. Bankhead so far has shown no signs she’s backing down.
Nebraska: Nebraska features another independent candidate trying to flip a Republican-held seat in November. Democratic nominee Cindy Burbank dropped out of the contest, effectively clearing her lane for Dan Osborn, an independent who ran unsuccessfully in 2024. His bid against GOP Sen. Pete Ricketts is likely a longshot, but party strategists are watching this race closely.
