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Public school enrollment decline is steepest in LAUSD and L.A. County

Schools in Los Angeles County and especially those in the L.A. Unified School District are seeing the steepest decline in enrollment in California, based on new state data posted Thursday.
Across California, enrollment dropped by 1.3% — about 75,000 students — over the last year, a percentage decline that is about average compared with 39 states that have so far released enrollment figures for the current school year. All 39 have recorded enrollment decreases, based on an analysis by the California Department of Education. States with a larger percentage decline include Hawaii, New Hampshire and New York.
“Declining school enrollment in California reflects the national trend,” said Elizabeth Sanders, a spokesperson for the state Department of Education. In addition, “the data shows that some California families are relocating to less expensive suburban communities like Elk Grove and Vacaville.”
The statewide figures correlate to declining birth rates nationwide, although other factors are in play locally, including in Los Angeles County, such as housing costs, a decline in immigration and aggressive federal efforts to deport undocumented immigrants.
“There are some surprises in these data, but the decline itself shouldn’t be surprising,” said Thomas J. Kane, director of the Center for Education Policy Research at Harvard. “Declining birth rates inevitably mean declining enrollment. The size of the decline should be manageable — but only if schools adjust their plans now, rather than wait.”
Typical ways of coping with declining enrollment including closing schools and reducing the number of employees. Both are painful measures for school communities and have been resisted in the Los Angeles Unified School District and elsewhere.
This week, LAUSD officials just barely headed off a strike by agreeing to significant employee raises as well as by rescinding about 200 layoffs and agreeing to hundreds of new hires of counselors, school psychologists and other student support staff. The school system has not identified campuses that could be closed.
Los Angeles County, with 80 school districts, has far more students than any other California county, so its effect on statewide enrollment always will be significant. Over the last year enrollment drops were pronounced, pulling down statewide numbers.
Los Angeles County public school enrollment for the 2025-26 academic year decreased from the prior year by 32,953 students, or 2.6%, to 1,242,816. That drop would equate to the disappearance of the entire Moreno Valley Unified School District, which is one of the 25 largest school systems in the state.
The county decrease represents 44% of the statewide decline. By comparison, the county comprises about 22% of the state’s students.
For L.A. Unified, the decline was 16,765 students, or 4.5%. L.A. Unified’s share of the statewide decrease is 22.4%. The district has about 7% of the state’s public school students.
Per the state numbers, the L.A. Unified enrollment is 353,065 and was 369,830 last year.
L.A. Unified has a different and larger enrollment figure based on a different tabulation system, but the percentage decrease is similar to what the state calculated — and it was no surprise to district officials when asked for their reaction.
District officials also noted state figures showing that enrollment is lower, too, for homeschooling, private schools and charter schools. Charters are privately operated public schools.
“Los Angeles Unified’s enrollment trends reflect the same broader demographic shifts impacting school systems across California and the nation,” officials said in a statement. “Enrollment declined across all school types this year, driven largely by long-term factors such as declining birth rates and changes in migration patterns due to cost of living.”
“Like other large urban districts, Los Angeles Unified is also navigating additional local pressures, including housing affordability and the impact of federal immigration enforcement policies, which have contributed to a more pronounced decline in our communities.”
School district critics say the management of the school system itself must bear some blame, although demographic experts lend support to the district analysis.
It’s “quite possible that some of this decline is driven by the increased scale and intensity of immigration enforcement,” said Stanford University professor Thomas S. Dee. “I’ve found in prior research that immigration enforcement reduces enrollment by causing some to flee and deterring newcomers.”
In terms of raw numbers, Santa Ana Unified, which lost 2,291 students, follows L.A. Unified in declining enrollment. That’s a 6.4% drop since last year. Immigration enforcement also has fallen heavily on families in that school system.
School systems with higher enrollment include Elk Grove Unified, which gained 1,097 students, a 1.7% increase. Vacaville Unified enrolled 557 more students, a 4.9% increase. Counties with higher enrollment included San Joaquin, Placer and Sutter.
Mixed picture for private and home schooling
There was a year-over-year decline across all school types.
Schools operated by traditional school districts dropped 1.4%, almost exactly the same as the statewide numbers. This reflects that most students, about 5.73 million, are in public schools.
Charter schools dropped slightly statewide, about 0.3%.
The number of students being homeschooled dropped 3.7%. For data purposes, a home school is defined as a private school with fewer than six students. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, in the 2018-19 school year, there were just under 25,000 homeschoolers. The number peaked in 2020-21, at the height of the pandemic campus closures, at nearly 60,000. The current figure is 49,365.
Private school enrollment dropped 6.6% compared with last year; it’s now a little less than before the pandemic.
In 2018-19, private school enrollment approached 500,000. Enrollment dropped early in the pandemic, then peaked in 2022-23. The current enrollment is 461,650 students, a decrease of 32,814 from last year.
In the big picture, said Stanford’s Dee, “we see continued evidence that the families that left the public school system during the pandemic haven’t really returned.”
UC Berkeley education professor Bruce Fuller focused on the recent private school decline, noting that “fewer parents appear able to afford private schools.”
He also was drawn to another figure — an increase in the number of families taking advantage of transitional kindergarten, which became fully available across the state to 4-year-olds for the current school year.
That enrollment figure is 213,313, up 20.1% over last year.
“Free TK is growing in popularity, especially among middle-income Angelenos who earlier faced daunting child-care bills,” Fuller said. “The downside is that scores of nonprofit preschools have gone under after losing their 4-year-olds.”
Overall, the declining birth rate “continues to wreak havoc with the fragile vitality of public schools,” Fuller added. “The irony is that steadily rising education attainment, notably enjoyed by young Latina mothers, leads to bearing fewer children.”
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What Happens When Light Goes Boom? Part 1: The Scientist Who Stared at a Glow
I want you to imagine a scene. It’s the red carpet. It’s the night of the Oscars, or the Emmys, or the participation trophy ceremony for your kid’s soccer team. That’s not the essential part of the metaphor. What matters is who is there: Brad Bradington’s adoring fans, curious onlookers, and of course the paparazzi, ready to take their shot.
In our analogy, Brad Bradington is a particle. An electron, a proton, even a neutrino if it felt like it. The crowd of onlookers and fans? That’s a material — a substance, like air or water or diamond or the inside of your eyeball (which is mostly water and hopefully very little diamond).
And those paparazzi? They’re the most important part.
I’m talking today about something called Cherenkov radiation, which I prefer to call a “light boom” but as usual nobody listens much to me. We’ll get to Brad Bradington and his red carpet moment. But first we need to talk about the man who stared at a faint blue glow for three years and refused to look away.
It’s 1934. Pavel Alekseyevich Cherenkov is working in Moscow, doing the kind of science that sounds almost embarrassingly simple when you describe it at a party: he’s shining gamma rays into a bottle of water.
That’s it. That’s the whole experiment.
Hey — in the 1930s, a lot of particle physics involved shining or shooting X into target Y, so it’s not as lame as it sounds. But still. A bottle of water.
And when he shoots the gamma rays into the water, it glows. Blue. Faint, barely there. But unmistakably there.
Now here’s the thing. This wasn’t the first time anyone had seen this. Marie Curie’s lab had noticed the same glow years earlier. Other physicists had seen it too. And every single one of them had looked at it, shrugged, and written it off as fluorescence — some impurity in the water absorbing the radiation and re-emitting it as light. Secondary effect. Not interesting. Move along.
Cherenkov looks at it and thinks the great hallmark of most scientific discoveries: huh, that’s weird.
It’s said that good scientists don’t discover new things — they look at old things in a new way. Pavel did that.
He’s not sure why he’s suspicious. But he’s suspicious. So he does what any good experimentalist does when something doesn’t sit right — he starts poking it. He tries purifying the water. The glow stays. Hmm. He tries different liquids. The glow changes. Ooh! He varies the energy of the radiation. The glow responds. Neat! He changes the geometry of the experiment.
The glow has a direction.
Wait, what?
Fluorescence glows in all directions equally — it doesn’t care which way you’re looking at it. But this glow was asymmetric. It was stronger in some directions than others. It was doing something fluorescence absolutely does not do.
He doesn’t know what this is. But this is definitely NOT fluorescence.
So Cherenkov does something that separates the great scientists from the merely good ones: he decides that not knowing what something is is not a reason to stop looking at it. He spends the next three years characterizing this phenomenon with almost obsessive precision. He’s not a theorist — he can’t tell you WHY it’s happening. But he can tell you everything about WHAT it’s doing. He measures its intensity, its direction, its dependence on the speed of the incoming particles, its behavior in different materials. He builds up a complete empirical portrait of something he fundamentally doesn’t understand.
He publishes his results. The physics community is…mildly interested. This is the 1930s. There’s a lot going on. Quantum mechanics is still being sorted out. Nuclear physics is exploding — literally. A faint blue glow in a bottle of water is not exactly front page news.
A few years later, a pair of theorists pick up his careful measurements and figure out what’s actually going on.
It’s Brad Bradington, showing up at the red carpet.
In Part 2, we need to talk about the crowd — and why the speed of light is not actually a universal speed limit.
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Hundreds of affordable housing units funded by new L.A. County agency

For Michael Miller, getting a project off the ground is usually a bureaucratic juggling act.
When building affordable housing like the 200-plus units he’s planning in Harbor Gateway and Stevenson Ranch, the president of Bold Communities said he’d typically be forced to find funding through three to five different local and state agencies.
This time around, he’s going to just one: the newly established L.A. County Affordable Housing Solutions Agency.
The agency, known as LACAHSA, bills itself as a one-stop shop for affordable housing financing with offers of construction loans, permanent loans, rental subsidies and other types of funding products. It’s betting that in doing so developers can build low-income homes quicker and cheaper in a county with a bruising affordability and homelessness crisis.
There’s some evidence this is the case. According to the Terner Center at UC Berkeley, each additional public funding source an affordable developer uses, on average, delays a project four months and increases total cost by $20,460 per unit — more than $2 million for a 100-unit community.
“We want to build housing cheaper and quicker, because that means more units,” LACAHSA interim chief executive Ryan Johnson said.
On Wednesday, the agency gave approval to just over $100 million for ten projects, including the two from Bold Communities.
The Terner Center said going to multiple agencies for needed funding adds costs because developers have to endure higher legal, staffing and compliance costs to manage additional applications and contracts.
Each process, of course, also takes time, during which developers pay additional holding costs on predevelopment loans, all the while inflation pushes up the cost of materials and wages.
Miller estimated by going through only LACAHSA, he could cut down total costs around 5% to 10%.
LACAHSA, founded through state legislation in 2022, receives its funding from the recent voter-approved Measure A half-cent sales tax to fight homelessness and build affordable housing.
Until now, the agency had awarded money only for homeless prevention efforts such as direct rental subsidies to tenants.
It’s first batch of funds to build and preserve affordable housing, approved Wednesday, will pay for 554 below market units. The vast majority will be brand new homes, while a small share will be conversions of existing market rate residential units into affordable units and extending deed-restrictions on some existing below-market units.
LACAHSA pointed to data showing that of the top performing quarter of new construction projects that recently applied for its funding, total development costs came in below the typical cost to build affordable units in the county. Savings rose to nearly 12% when project proposals relied primarily or entirely on LACAHSA funding, rather than mixing state funding with just one or two LACAHSA products.
Terner Center managing director Ben Metcalf said it’s unclear to what extent those savings might reflect that cheaper projects just happened to apply for funding from LACAHSA. But he expects at least some of the savings can be attributed to LACAHSA’s structure.
Not only does the agency offer a plethora of financial products, but LACAHSA said it ranks project proposals by their efforts to reduce costs and considers that as a significant factor when deciding to approve funding.
Metcalf, who previously served as director of the California Dept. of Housing and Community Development, said such a focus on awarding dollars based on the estimated development cost isn’t the norm among public agencies.
In part, he theorized that was because “the rising cost of affordable housing has really only become an issue of visible concern over the last few years.”
In 2022, the Times reported the cost to build just one unit of affordable housing in California routinely cost more than $1 million. Voters have also expressed growing frustration at the lack of progress in reducing homelessness and overall housing costs.
LACAHSA isn’t the only effort to simply a complicated funding process, with Gov. Gavin Newsom proposing to streamline state funding as part of this year’s budget.
Meanwhile, LACAHSA plans to approve another round of affordable housing funds in May.
To apply for that funding and the dollars approved Wednesday, LACAHSA said it required developers to be able to break ground within 12 months. Developers submitted 127 applications, seeking a total of $1.5 billion to build 11,625 units.
Long Beach Mayor Rex Richardson, who serves as chair of the LACAHSA board, argued the high interest shows it’s really a lack of “financing and operational support” holding back the construction of more affordable housing in L.A. County, rather than a lack of “sites or community will.”
“LACAHSA was built to meet this moment,” he said in a statement.
The projects that Bold Communities plans in Harbor Gateway and Stevenson Ranch are conversions of extended stay hotels into low-income senior housing.
Now that funding is secured, Miller said he expects the buildings to be full of new residents by the end of next year.
“I think these will be, honestly, pretty straight forward,” the non profit executive said.
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