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New Research Indicates Our Galaxy may be Either Overpopulated or Desolate, with Both Scenarios Being Equally Frightening!

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Is there clever life within the Universe? And if that’s the case, simply how widespread is it? Or maybe the query must be, what are the percentages that these engaged within the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI) will encounter it sometime? For many years, scientists have hotly debated this matter, and no scarcity of ink has been spilled on the topic. From the numerous papers and research which have been written on the topic, two essential camps have emerged: those that imagine life is widespread in our galaxy (aka. SETI Optimists) and people who preserve that extraterrestrial intelligence is both uncommon or non-existent (SETI Pessimists).

In a recent paper, David Kipping (Prof. “Cool Worlds” himself) and Geraint Lewis examined this debate extra intently and supplied a recent take based mostly on a type of likelihood evaluation often known as Jayne’s Experiment. By making use of this methodology to astrobiology and the Drake Equation, they concluded that the existence of clever life in our galaxy could also be an “all or nothing” proposition. To cite the late and nice scientist and science fiction writer Arthur C. C. Clarke: “Two prospects exist: both we’re alone within the Universe, or we aren’t. Each are equally terrifying.”

David Kipping is an Affiliate Professor of Astronomy at Columbia College and a Carl Sagan Fellow on the Harvard College Observatory. He’s additionally the Precept Investigator of the Cool Worlds Lab at Columbia, which is devoted to finding out and characterizing exoplanet methods. Geraint Lewis is a Professor of Astrophysics on the Sydney Institute for Astronomy, a part of the University of Sydney’s School of Physics. Their paper, “Do SETI Optimists Have a Fine-Tuning Problem?” just lately appeared on-line and is being reviewed for publication within the Worldwide Journal of Astrobiology.

Table of Contents

The Drake Equation

In 1961, famed astronomer Frank Drake hosted the primary SETI assembly ever on the Greenbank Observatory in West Virginia. In preparation for the occasion, he created an equation summarizing the challenges SETI researchers confronted. This got here to be often known as the Drake Equation and is expressed mathematically as:

***N = R* × fp × ne × fl × fi × fc × L***

The place:

N is the variety of at the moment lively, talk civilizations in our galaxy.
R* is the speed at which stars type in our galaxy.
fp is the fraction of stars with planets.
ne is the variety of planets that may doubtlessly host life, per star that has planets.
fl is the fraction of the above that really do develop lifetime of any variety.
fi is the fraction of the above that develop clever life.
fc is the fraction of the above that develop the capability for interstellar communication.
L is the size of time that such talk civilizations are lively.

The Drake Equation was not meant to estimate the variety of extraterrestrial civilizations (ETCs) in our galaxy however to stimulate dialogue about SETI. Since Drake first formulated it, the equation has been topic to criticism, additions, and revisions and has typically been misrepresented within the course of. As Prof. Kipping defined to Universe Right this moment by way of e mail, a part of the issue is how values are sometimes arbitrarily utilized to the parameters:

“Since we don’t know many of the parameters, that is simply pure hypothesis, and it must be labeled as such. One other level typically missed is that it represents the imply variety of civilizations and, thus, an expectation worth of some underlying distribution. Today, it’s develop into a little bit of a sport to critique the Drake equation. Actually, anybody utilizing it as a calculator must be pretty criticized, however the fundamental concept isn’t flawed. There should be some variety of civilizations on the market, and we might, in precept, accumulate related parameters to calculate it. The problems come up within the precise formulation, which parameters to incorporate, what they actually imply, and tips on how to take care of nuances like time variability.”

Jayne’s Experiment

Edwin Jaynes (1922-1998) was the Wayman Crow Distinguished Professor of Physics at Washington College in St. Louis. In 1968, he imagined an experiment the place an individual in a lab is offered with a jar containing an unknown and unlabelled compound (chemical X). Alongside a laboratory bench, there are numerous beakers crammed with water, and the experiment is to check how typically chemical X will dissolve inside them. Jaynes argued that one ought to anticipate the compound to both dissolve in practically each occasion or nearly by no means.

Screenshot 2024 08 04 at 13 01 39 2407.07097v1.pdf — *The operate of the Haldane prior (F ^–1(1 – F ) ^–1) that captures this conduct. Credit score: D. Kipping & G. Lewis (2024).*

When plotted on a graph, the likelihood distribution could be bowl-shaped, with values peeking at 0 and 1. As Kipping defined in additional element:

“Jaynes imagined a sequence of what we name Bernoulli experiments – that’s, experiments that return sure/no solutions. These may very well be something actually, however for instance, he imagined dissolving an unknown chemical right into a sequence of beakers containing water after which asking – what fraction of them will dissolve? One other scientist, the legendary John Haldane, had already prompt that a solution of ~50% was unlikely a-priori. One ought to anticipate that both practically all of them will dissolve or hardly any.”

“Jaynes rigorously proved that and pioneered lots of the instruments of goal Bayesian inference. We will equally exchange the Bernoulli experiment into consideration to different questions, like what fraction of stars will develop into a black gap? Earlier than acquiring any observations, a solution of ~50% could be shocking, implying that the distribution of stellar lots is finely balanced such that half are above the important mass threshold and half beneath. In actuality the reply is one-in-a-thousand, which falls in step with Jaynes’s place.”

Due to his immense contributions to the sphere of statistics, Jaynes is credited with being one of many founders of “Goal Bayesianism.” Whereas his experiment was not meant as such, Kipping and Lewis noticed its potential software in astrobiology.

All or Nothing?

In his seminal 1983 paper, “The Great Silence – the Controversy Concerning Extraterrestrial Intelligent Life,” David Brin addressed the continued debate relating to the existence of extraterrestrial life. From this, he discerned the presence of two camps when it got here to the controversy: “Contact Optimists” and “Contact Pessimists” – or as Kipping and Lewis seek advice from them of their paper, “SETI Optimists” and “SETI Pessimists” – those that imagine that there are civilizations in our galaxy humanity could make contact with and people who imagine it’s fruitless since humanity is alone within the Universe.

When Jaynes’s Experiment is utilized to the query of clever life in our galaxy, we must always anticipate that it could both be quite common or very uncommon. Within the center, the place the likelihood distribution is weakest (i.e., extraterrestrial life is semi-common), is the place the “fine-tuning drawback” emerges. Within the context of cosmology and astrobiology, fine-tuning refers back to the proposition that the circumstances for all times can happen solely when sure common constants lie inside a really slender vary of values.

If any of those basic constants had been barely completely different, the Universe wouldn’t be conducive to the event of matter, large-scale constructions, or life as we all know it. As Kipping defined, this presents an issue for SETI Optimists:

“In contrast to the black gap instance I gave you earlier, there’s no decrease bounds on this drawback. With black holes, we all know the smallest and largest allowed star mass from astrophysics and it’s just a few orders of magnitude. The black gap threshold should be in that pretty slender vary someplace. With regards to aliens, the likelihood of intelligence may very well be 1% or 0.000….00001% (add as many zero’s as you want).

“With a such an enormous vary of prospects, SETI optimists must imagine the relatively contrived view that the % worth isn’t so excessive that we wouldn’t see anybody but, however actually far larger than the deep abyss of low possibilities which might be believable. Thus they’ve a fine-tuning drawback primarily, needing the share to dwell in a reasonably slender hall.”

If our galaxy had been crammed with extraterrestrial civilizations, absolutely there could be plain indicators that we might have seen—i.e., radio signals, megastructures, Clarke Bands, and different “technosignatures.” If that is beginning to sound acquainted, it’s as a result of this argument is the very core of the Fermi Paradox (which we’ve written an entire series about!) As such, one might construe Kipping and Lewis’ argument for instance of SETI Pessimism. Fortunately, the story doesn’t finish there.

A New Formalism

Confronted with this end result, Kipping and Lewis tried to plot a brand new formalism for the Drake Equation that considers simply two processes: the start fee and the dying fee of civilizations. When that is completed, the entire parameters within the equation (apart from L, the lifespan of civilizations) collapse right into a single parameter: the start and dying fee of civilizations (r_c). Or as it could seem mathematically: N_C = r_c x L_C. Stated Kipping:

“In the usual Drake equation, we regularly get caught up arguing about which parameters to incorporate (ought to there be a fraction for the likelihood of life creating into multicellular life, for instance). But it surely’s utterly plain that each civilisations will need to have a starting and an finish, in reality we will even set the dying fee to zero which corresponds to infinite lifetimes if we so want on this framework. In an ecological system, like a petri dish, for instance, there’s a well-defined most potential inhabitants that we name the carrying capability. So, we up to date the birth-death model of the Drake equation to account for this nuance.”

Screenshot 2024 08 07 at 17 59 00 2407.07097v1.pdf — *Kipping and Lewis’s revised formalism for the Drake Equation, based mostly on the theoretical start and dying charges of civilizations. Credit score: Kipping, D. & Lewis, G. (2024)*

On this case, the distribution of possibilities turned S-shaped (see picture above), however the finish end result was nonetheless the identical: both the galaxy is crowded or empty. A method round that is the concept humanity may very well be alive throughout a interval wherein ETCs have emerged and are starting to increase all through the galaxy and thus haven’t been seen by our devices but. Nonetheless, as Kipping and Lewis confirmed, this additionally suffers from the fine-tuning drawback, as biology signifies that inhabitants development is an accelerating phenomenon.

“You see, galactic growth phases must be comparatively fast on a cosmic timescale; in reality, actually just like the blink of an eye fixed,” stated Kipping. “So it’s unlikely you’d dwell throughout such a section; you’re extra prone to dwell when the galaxy is basically empty earlier than this occurs or after it’s occurred (which, in reality, is arguably unattainable since your planet is colonized). As soon as once more, Fermi’s Paradox rears its head, the place the strongest chances are humanity is both alone, early to the get together, or one of some civilizations at the moment current within the Milky Means.

Hope for SETI?

However earlier than you go considering it’s all unhealthy information, Kipping and Lewis emphasize that SETI is a crucial and important experiment that deserves devoted sources. “Whereas the percentages of success seem small, so successful would arguably symbolize essentially the most impactful scientific discovery in human historical past,” they conclude. In addition they counsel a number of causes to stay hopeful, which embody Hanson’s “Grabby Aliens” speculation, which states that humanity is on the midpoint within the S-shaped curve and that we’ll encounter an ETI in a number of hundred million years.

Within the meantime, Kipping additionally means that SETI may gain advantage from casting a wider web. If, as their research suggests, superior civilizations are very uncommon (or non-existent) in our galaxy, then we must always look to extra-galactic sources. “I believe my favourite means out is that our galaxy is simply unusually quiet

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Minnesota Man Aditya Harsono Whose Student Visa Was Revoked Talks About Detainment

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Current movies on social media displaying immigration brokers taking individuals into custody unnerved Aditya Harsono, who had himself come to this nation from Indonesia on a pupil visa. However he stated he presumed that the media was most likely exaggerating the extent of the Trump administration’s actions.

His understanding shifted in late March, although, when a supervisor on the hospital the place he was working in western Minnesota summoned him downstairs, and two federal brokers put him in handcuffs.

“All the pieces form of shattered,” stated Mr. Harsono, who discovered that his pupil visa, which had allowed him to earn a grasp’s diploma in enterprise administration and to then keep for a yr to work, had been revoked due to a misdemeanor property destruction conviction. Mr. Harsono, who’s married to an American citizen and has utilized for a inexperienced card, has been held in a county jail since and faces deportation.

The individuals affected embody college students concerned in activism over the warfare in Gaza, whom the Trump administration has characterised as disruptive. Some others, together with Mr. Harsono, seem to have misplaced their visas on account of legal convictions, some for comparatively minor offenses.

Few of the scholars being held have spoken publicly about their conditions. However Mr. Harsono, 34, described in telephone interviews from the jail the place he has been held for weeks the shock of his arrest and the way in which that his visa revocation has upended his household. And his spouse, Peyton Harsono, advised of difficulties she now faces caring for their 8-month-old daughter, Adalet, whereas working as a social employee at a drug-treatment heart.

Ms. Harsono, a Minnesota native, stated the household has misplaced medical health insurance that had include Mr. Harsono’s job as a provide chain supervisor on the hospital. As their financial savings dwindle, Ms. Harsono, 24, has been pleading for assistance on a fund-raising web site, calling “the trauma of this separation insufferable.”

The State Division declined to reply to questions on Mr. Harsono’s case. In an announcement, it stated, “The Division of State will proceed to work carefully with the Division of Homeland Safety to implement zero tolerance for aliens in the USA who violate U.S. legal guidelines, threaten public security, or in different conditions the place warranted.”

Secretary of State Marco Rubio lately stated the federal government had nullified the visas of scholars concerned in disruptive types of activism, together with acts of vandalism. “Once we determine lunatics like these, we take away their pupil visa,” Mr. Rubio said. “Nobody is entitled to a pupil visa.”

After shifting to the USA in 2015, Mr. Harsono acquired a bachelor’s diploma in environmental science from Southwest Minnesota State College, which he attended with a scholarship funded by the Indonesian authorities. Throughout his years in America, Mr. Harsono stated he pursued a ardour for hip-hop by recording music, learn historical past books and typically took half in peaceable protests over police misconduct.

He enrolled within the faculty’s M.B.A. program in 2022, and met Ms. Harsono within the residential advanced the place they each lived.

She was immediately smitten, she stated, including, “When you realize, you realize.”

In July 2022, Mr. Harsono was charged with destruction of property for drawing graffiti on 4 trailers that belonged to a meals firm.

Repairing the harm value lower than $500, a courtroom doc stated. Mr. Harsono pleaded responsible to misdemeanor destruction of property and agreed to pay $485, which included a fantastic and courtroom charges, data confirmed.

Talking on the telephone from Kandiyohi County Jail, roughly 95 miles west of Minneapolis, Mr. Harsono stated he was remorseful about what he had accomplished. He stated that he liked portray murals and had a lifelong ardour for avenue artwork, and had wrongly presumed that the trailers had been deserted.

The couple married within the fall of 2023. The next yr, they utilized for Mr. Harsono’s inexperienced card and shortly settled right into a routine, juggling the calls for of parenthood and new jobs. Cash was tight. Sleep was scarce. However all the things appeared to be going nicely, they stated, till Mr. Harsono’s arrest on the hospital on March 27.

The State Division revoked Mr. Harsono’s visa on the request of officers on the Division of Homeland Safety, in response to a memo from March 23 signed by John Armstrong, a profession diplomat. The 2022 property harm arrest, the memo stated, confirmed that Mr. Harsono “now poses a risk to U.S. public security.”

Mr. Armstrong wrote that the State Division wouldn’t notify Mr. Harsono concerning the revocation earlier than brokers took him into custody, citing Immigration and Customs Enforcement’s “operational safety.”

The day after his arrest, the Division of Homeland Safety issued a doc setting in movement deportation proceedings, stating that Mr. Harsono was topic to deportation as a result of he remained in the USA after his visa was revoked a couple of days earlier.

Mr. Harsono stated that the immigration officers who drove him to jail inquired at one level how somebody from Indonesia, an archipelago well-known for its seashores, had wound up in Minnesota, a spot with unforgiving winters. The brokers’ jovial dialog, Mr. Harsono stated, felt starkly at odds along with his temper, which he stated has worsened over the weeks in a jail unit that homes 16 individuals.

“I haven’t had recent air and daylight,” he stated final week.

Throughout his time in custody, Mr. Harsono stated he has mirrored on the explanations he selected to check in the USA. He stated he had regarded it as a rustic that values multiculturalism and freedom of speech.

Mr. Harsono stated he feels that the nation has modified in vital and ominous methods. Even when he had been to finally get a inexperienced card, Mr. Harsono stated he questioned whether or not he would ever really feel protected and at house right here. “America is not a democracy,” he stated.

He stated that he despairs on the thought that, ought to he be deported, he is likely to be barred from visiting the nation his spouse and daughter name house. He has begun to contemplate, he stated, how his spouse and daughter may fare if all of them had been to maneuver to Indonesia.

In solely a matter of weeks, Ms. Harsono stated her husband has missed out on a number of milestones for his or her child daughter. Adalet has begun to take a seat up unassisted, to get round in a rolling child walker and to say the phrase “dada” for the primary time when her father known as from jail.

“She’s gotten a lot greater,” she stated.

Throughout a courtroom listening to on April 10, an immigration choose dominated that Mr. Harsono could possibly be launched on bond, citing his eligibility for a inexperienced card, in response to his lawyer, Sarah Gad. However the authorities blocked his launch whereas it appeals the ruling, so Mr. Harsono stays in custody.

Along with the graffiti arrest, Ms. Gad stated {that a} authorities lawyer talked about in courtroom that Mr. Harsono had been arrested in 2021 throughout an indication towards police violence. Prosecutors dismissed the cost he confronted, a misdemeanor for violating a curfew, the lawyer added.

Ms. Harsono stated she struggles to ponder what would occur if her husband is finally deported. Dwelling with out him feels excruciating. And, having by no means traveled overseas, she stated the considered shifting to Indonesia is unthinkable.

“I’ve hardly ever been out of the state,” she stated. “The farthest I’m going is South Dakota.”

Alain Delaquérière contributed analysis.

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Illinois Senator Dick Durbin retiring, will not run for reelection in 2026 at end of term

Illinois Sen. Dick Durbin introduced Wednesday morning he’s retiring and won’t run for reelection in 2026.

The choice of whether or not to run for re-election has not been straightforward. I actually love the job of being a United States Senator.

However in my coronary heart, I do know it’s time to cross the torch.

So, I’m saying at present that I can’t be in search of re-election on the finish of my time period. pic.twitter.com/eiBTPjToFT

— Senator Dick Durbin (@SenatorDurbin) April 23, 2025

In a video posted to X, Durbin stated, “I actually love the job of being a United State senator, however in my coronary heart I do know it’s time to cross the torch. So, I’m saying at present I can’t be in search of reelection on the finish of my time period.”

Durbin, who’s 80, expressed his gratitude to the folks of Illinois for electing him to the Senate for longer than anybody else in state historical past, and stated he was honored by the duty bestowed on him.

“Proper now the challenges going through our nation are historic and unprecedented,” he continued. “The threats to our democracy and our lifestyle are very actual, and I can guarantee you, I am going to do all the pieces in my energy to combat for Illinois and the way forward for our nation day-after-day of my remaining time within the Senate.”

Durbin known as his fellow Illinois senator Tammy Duckworth a “trusted pal and efficient chief,” and stated she shall be a “actual asset” to the state and the nation as Illinois’ subsequent senior senator.

Durbin is the senior senator for Illinois. He was first elected to the U.S. Senate in 1996, filling the seat left vacant by longtime Sen. Paul Simon.

He additionally serves on the Senate Democratic Whip, the second-highest rating place for the celebration within the Senate. He was first elected to this management publish by Senate Democrats in 2005, and has been reelected to it each two years since.

Durbin is the rating member of the Senate Judiciary Committee. He additionally serves on the Appropriations Committee and the Agriculture, Vitamin and Forestry Committee.

He launched the Dream Act, which might give undocumented immigrants who got here to the U.S. as youngsters and grew up right here a path to citizenship, in 2001 alongside Senator Orrin Hatch (R-Utah). He was additionally a drive behind the institution of the Deferred Motion for Childhood Arrival Program, or DACA, created by President Barack Obama in 2012.

He additionally championed the First Step Act, which was signed into legislation by President Trump in 2018, a bipartisan prison justice invoice that reformed sentencing legal guidelines and supplied extra alternatives for incarcerated folks to re-enter society upon their launch.

Durbin and his spouse Loretta Schaefer Durbin reside in Springfield, Illinois. He has three youngsters – Paul, Jennifer and Christine, his oldest daughter who died in 2008 from issues from a congenital coronary heart situation.

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Sara Tenenbaum is the Senior Digital Producer for CBS Information Chicago masking breaking, native and neighborhood information in Chicago. She beforehand labored as a digital producer and senior digital producer for ABC7 Chicago.

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Police arrest man accused of felling Downtown L.A. trees with chainsaw

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The Los Angeles Police Division arrested a person on Tuesday who was captured on surveillance footage utilizing a chainsaw to cut down a number of bushes in Downtown Los Angeles.

The tree-chopping vandal sparked nice intrigue and outrage when residents noticed the picket carnage on South Grand Avenue and different areas of city-owned property over the weekend. Plenty of bushes had been severed on the base, whereas others had been lower a number of ft above the pavement and some had been nonetheless related to their trunks by only a thread of bark.

Shortly earlier than 5 p.m. Tuesday, the LAPD launched a group alert displaying a photograph of the suspect on a bicycle that described him as a person in his 40s. Round 90 minutes later, police introduced that he had been taken into custody on suspicion of felony vandalism. Authorities didn’t instantly launch his title.

The person is accused of felling bushes close to 1550 W 8 Avenue at 3:40 p.m. Friday; close to 350 S Grand Avenue at 1:22 a.m. Saturday; and close to 300 Treadwell Avenue at unknown time, police stated. Further places of fallen bushes are nonetheless being investigated.

Plenty of the bushes lower down by the vandal seemed to be Indian laurel figs.

Anybody with info is requested to contact Central Housebreaking Det. Gutierrez at (213) 924-8930 throughout common enterprise hours and the Central Space Watch Commander at (213) 486-6618.

Mayor Karen Bass stated in a press release to ABC7 News that the state of affairs is “actually past comprehension” and that public works crews are working to interchange the bushes as quickly as attainable.

Bushes present many advantages to city areas. They clear the air, replenish the groundwater, seize stormwater runoff, slow the deterioration of streets and have been shown to reduce crime.

Additionally they create a really useful cooling impact. On a sizzling day, the temperature in shade below a tree cover may be as much as 10 levels cooler than within the direct solar. One research by the UCLA Luskin Center discovered that shade can scale back warmth stress within the human physique by 25% to 30% all through the day.

Workers author Suzanne Rust contributed to this report.