Down Nearly 60% From Its Peak, Is It Finally Time to Buy Joby Aviation?

Joby Aviation (NYSE: JOBY), a developer of electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft, closed at a record high of $20.39 per share on Aug. 4, 2025. At the time, Joby impressed the market with its technological advantages, strong partnerships, and clear plans for commercializing its first air taxi flights. The Fed’s interest rate cuts in 2024 and 2025 also drove more investors back toward speculative, higher-growth stocks.

But as of this writing, Joby’s stock trades at less than $9 per share. Let’s see why it lost nearly 60% of its value, and if it’s worth buying as a contrarian bet on the nascent eVTOL market.

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Joby’s S4 eVTOL carries one pilot and four passengers, travels up to 150 miles on a single charge, and achieves a maximum speed of 200 miles per hour. To reduce drag, it uses single-tilt-rotor propellers that alternate between lifting and cruising modes. That key difference enables the S4 to travel faster and farther than Archer Aviation‘s (NYSE: ACHR) Midnight, which uses separate propellers for its lifting and cruising modes.

Joby, Archer, and other eVTOL makers aim to replace conventional helicopters in short-range air taxi routes. Joby has already attracted significant attention from prominent investors, including Toyota (NYSE: TM), Delta Air Lines (NYSE: DAL), and Uber (NYSE: UBER).

Uber, one of Joby’s earliest investors, will integrate Joby’s eVTOL rides into its ride-hailing app into its new service, Uber Air, once the regulators approve its first commercial flights. Toyota has been ramping up its investments in Joby to support the certification and commercialization of those air taxis. Delta, Virgin Atlantic, All Nippon Airways, and other airline companies plan to bundle Joby’s flights into their tickets as premium last-mile “airport to home” services.

The global eVTOL market could grow at a 36.8% CAGR from 2026 to 2034, according to Fortune Business Insights. Assuming Joby stays at the top of this booming market, analysts expect its revenue to rise from $53 million in 2025 to $459 million in 2028.

That outlook seems bright, but Joby hasn’t cleared its two most important regulatory hurdles yet. First, it’s unclear when the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) will approve the Type Certification for its first commercial flights. Some analysts expect that to happen by the end of this year or early 2027, but any delays could force them to slash their near-term estimates. Second, Joby originally planned to launch its first commercial flights in Dubai by the end of this year. It’s still officially sticking to that schedule, but the ongoing Middle East conflict could delay those plans and prompt analysts to reduce their revenue forecasts for the year.

As Joby grapples with those challenges, the macro headwinds are intensifying. Inflation is driving up costs and sparking fears that the Fed will raise rates rather than cut them. It’s still deeply unprofitable, and its share count has already risen by more than 60% since it went public via a merger with a special-purpose acquisition company (SPAC) on Aug. 11, 2021. That dilution could accelerate over the next few years as it scales its business.

With a market cap of $8.3 billion, Joby’s stock isn’t cheap at 18 times its 2028 sales. Archer, which faces the same regulatory headwinds, trades at just 8 times its 2028 sales. Therefore, any bad news could easily cut Joby’s stock in half again — and it still wouldn’t be considered a bargain relative to its near-term growth potential.

Joby arguably has a brighter future than Archer and its smaller eVTOL competitors. But without a clearer timeline for its FAA certification and its first commercial flights in Dubai, it’s impossible to tell if it can match Wall Street’s bullish forecasts. I’d be willing to nibble on Joby’s stock at these levels, since it’s still the “best in breed” play on the emerging eVTOL market, but I wouldn’t make a bigger investment unless it makes meaningful progress toward those near-term goals.

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Down Nearly 60% From Its Peak, Is It Finally Time to Buy Joby Aviation? was originally published by The Motley Fool

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‘Malcolm’ Star Justin Berfield Says Leave Eric Per Sullivan Alone

“Malcolm in the Middle” star Justin Berfield, who plays Malcolm’s older brother Reese, told the “Howie Mandel Does Stuff” podcast that he feels bad that his former co-star, Erik Per Sullivan, was thrust back into the public eye even though he declined to return as Dewey in the recent series revival.

When asked if Sullivan regretted his decision not to appear in “Malcolm in the Middle: Life’s Still Unfair,” Berfield said, “No. I know they asked him a whole bunch. They asked him like four or five times, and every time he was like, ‘No.’”

“He’s a good guy, and I love Eric,” Berfield added. “I actually feel bad because he wants to stay out of the business and I’ve been seeing paparazzi shots of him. And I’m like, just leave Eric alone. He didn’t want to come back to the show. No hard feelings.”

Sullivan, who played Malcolm’s youngest brother Dewey, was the only original star not to return for the reboot. Caleb Ellsworth-Clark took his place in the role.

In a recent interview with The Guardian, “Malcolm” star Jane Kaczmarek, who played Sullivan’s on-screen mother, said the show offered him a serious payday for his return, but he still declined.

She said Sullivan is “studying Dickens and is an incredible student. They offered him buckets of money to come back, and he just said, ‘No thank you.’”

The “Malcolm” revival sees Frankie Muniz’s titular middle child all grown up with a kid of his own. The show picks up as Malcolm is sucked back into his family’s orbit when his father, Hal (Bryan Cranston) and his mom, Lois (Kaczmarek), demand his presence at their 40th anniversary party. All episodes are available to stream on Hulu.

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Series Preview: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

The Milwaukee Brewers are set to host the Arizona Diamondbacks for a three-game set beginning Tuesday evening to wrap up their homestand. Milwaukee is coming off a series loss to the Pirates to begin the homestand, though they did pick up their first shutout win on Sunday, taking that one 5-0 behind a strong 12-strikeout showing from Kyle Harrison.

On the other side, Arizona is returning from their series split with the Padres in Mexico City, as they dropped Saturday’s game 6-4 before a comeback win on Sunday. They sit at 15-12 on the season, one game better than the 14-13 Brewers.

Milwaukee’s injured list (luckily) hasn’t grown much, but it also hasn’t shrunk. First baseman Andrew Vaughn and outfielder Jackson Chourio are both on the verge of rehab assignments as they recover from hand injuries, while Quinn Priester made his second rehab outing with Nashville over the weekend. He’s hoping for an early to mid-May return. Relievers Jared Koenig and Rob Zastryzny are both hoping to return in May, too, while outfielder/DH Christian Yelich is still shelved with a groin strain.

The Diamondbacks are missing a whole bunch of players, so let’s split them up into pitchers and position players. For the pitching staff, Blake Walston (midseason), Andrew Saalfrank (out for the season), Justin Martinez (second half), old friend Corbin Burnes (midseason), A.J. Puk (midseason), and Cristian Mena (TBD) are all out. Offensively, Arizona is without Pavin Smith (TBD), fellow former friend Carlos Santana (TBD), Jordan Lawlar (June), Tyler Locklear (mid-May/early June), and Gabriel Moreno, who is expected to rejoin the team for this series after missing the last couple of weeks with an oblique strain. Right-hander Zac Gallen and shortstop Geraldo Perdomo are also considered day to day with minor injuries, though Gallen is not lined up to pitch in this series.

Offensively, the Brewers haven’t homered in the last week, and they’ve struggled with inconsistency throughout the early going of the season. Brice Turang had a rough week but still led the team with four RBIs, as he’s now hitting .258/.391/.462 with four homers, 18 RBIs, 20 runs, and seven steals this season. Gary Sánchez and Jake Bauers lead the team with five homers. Garrett Mitchell has also shown flashes of his potential, and William Contreras remains a team leader. Beyond that, there isn’t much to say about the Brewer offense. As a team, Milwaukee is hitting .231/.329/.349 (.678 OPS ranks 26th), with 19 homers (tied for last), 132 runs (tied for ninth), and 36 steals (first).

Much as Perdomo did a season ago, Ildemaro Vargas has quietly turned into one of the best hitters in baseball this year with Arizona. Over 20 games, he’s hitting .367/.383/.722 with a team-high six homers, 20 RBIs, and 18 runs scored. Nolan Arenado and Ketel Marte each have four homers, while Corbin Carroll has three homers, four triples, and four steals. Jose Fernandez also has three homers and a .342 batting average thus far. Adrian Del Castillo, Aramis Garcia, James McCann, Tim Tawa, Jorge Barrosa, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., and Alek Thomas round out the roster (note: the team also added Jesus Valdez as the 27th man for the Mexico City Series). As a team, Arizona is hitting .255/.310/.426 (.736 OPS ranks seventh), with 27 homers (tied for 20th), 132 runs (tied for ninth), and 16 steals (tied for 21st).

Aaron Ashby and Grant Anderson still lead Milwaukee’s bullpen in appearances, with DL Hall turning in a solid 2.31 ERA over 11 outings. Abner Uribe has had some bumps this season, but he looked good over the weekend against Pittsburgh. After a hot start, Angel Zerpa has struggled in recent weeks, while Trevor Megill has had a reverse trajectory. Jake Woodford and Shane Drohan round out the current bullpen depth chart. As a staff, the Brewers have a 3.82 team ERA (eighth), including a 3.59 starter ERA (fifth) and a 4.09 bullpen ERA (15th). They’ve struck out 250 batters (ninth) over 240 1/3 innings.

The Arizona bullpen is led by Juan Morillo, who has a 1.98 ERA with 16 strikeouts over 13 2/3 innings. Closer Paul Sewald is a perfect 7-for-7 in save opportunities, but he has a 4.50 ERA and three losses. Former Brewer minor leaguer Taylor Clarke and Jonathan Loáisiga have matching 3.29 ERAs over 13 2/3 innings. Ryan Thompson, Kevin Ginkel, Andrew Hoffman, and swingman Brandon Pfaadt (five appearances, three starts) round out the bullpen. As a staff, the D-backs have a 4.53 team ERA (24th), including a 4.62 starter ERA (25th) and a 4.67 bullpen ERA (22nd). They’ve struck out 204 batters (29th) over 240 1/3 innings.

Tuesday, April 28 @ 6:40 p.m.: RHP Chad Patrick (1-1, 2.35 ERA, 4.37 FIP) vs. RHP Merrill Kelly (1-1, 9.31 ERA, 9.02 FIP)

Patrick has had a solid season thus far, even if the underlying numbers don’t back that up. He has a 2.35 ERA, with six earned runs on 21 hits and eight walks over 23 innings, striking out just 11. After DL Hall opened for him on Wednesday night in Detroit, he went four innings, getting roughed up for four runs on six hits and a walk, striking out two. A fourth-round pick by these D-backs back in 2021, he made one start against them last season, spanning 4 1/3 innings with no runs allowed on five hits and two walks, striking out three in a no-decision.

Kelly, 37, is in his eighth MLB season. A former three-time draft pick (in 2007, 2009, and 2010), Kelly spent four seasons in Korea before breaking through with Arizona in 2019. He spent his first six full seasons with the D-backs before being traded at last year’s deadline to the Rangers. He returned to Arizona this offseason and, after starting the season on the IL, has made two starts this year. His first start against the Orioles resulted in a win as he allowed two runs over 5 1/3 innings with three strikeouts, but his last time out, he got roughed up by the White Sox, allowing eight runs and striking out five over 4 1/3 innings. For the season, he’s totaled 9 2/3 innings with 10 runs allowed on 15 hits (four homers) and seven walks with eight strikeouts. Kelly has made 10 career appearances against the Brewers, with a 5-2 record, a 2.95 ERA, and 60 strikeouts over 61 innings. His only start last season came while with Texas, when he picked up the win despite allowing three runs on 10 hits, striking out six over 5 2/3 innings.

Wednesday, April 29 @ 6:40 p.m.: RHP Brandon Sproat (0-1, 6.45 ERA, 6.02 FIP) vs. LHP Eduardo Rodríguez (2-0, 2.89 ERA, 4.98 FIP)

Sproat, who got out to a horrid start in his first two outings, has looked much better in his last three appearances. He took a no-decision on Thursday in Detroit, as he went 5 1/3 innings with three runs allowed on four hits and two walks, striking out four on 76 pitches. The former second-round pick has never faced the D-backs before.

Rodríguez, 33, is in his third season with the D-backs after signing a four-year, $80 million contract that runs through 2027. While his ERA hovered just over 5.00 in each of his first two seasons in the desert, he’s had more statistical success this season. Even though his 4.98 FIP is near that 5.00 mark, he has a 2.89 ERA with 10 runs allowed (nine earned) and 18 strikeouts over 28 innings through five starts. He’s allowed four runs in each of his last two starts (against the Orioles and White Sox), spanning 10 innings with seven strikeouts. Rodríguez has made four career starts against Milwaukee, with an 0-3 record, a 4.58 ERA, and 16 strikeouts over 19 2/3 innings. That includes a pair of starts last season — both losses — in which he totaled 8 2/3 innings with eight runs allowed (seven earned) and four strikeouts.

Thursday, April 30 @ 12:40 p.m.: RHP Brandon Woodruff (2-1, 3.77 ERA, 4.09 FIP) vs. RHP Michael Soroka (4-0, 2.60 ERA, 2.69 FIP)

Woodruff just took his first loss of the season on Friday night against Pittsburgh, as he had the tall task of going head-to-head with Paul Skenes, who has his A-plus-plus stuff in a 6-0 Pirate win. Woodruff allowed three runs in that one, giving up five hits and two walks while striking out three. For the season, he’s totaled 28 2/3 innings with a 3.77 ERA, 4.09 FIP, and 23 strikeouts. Woodruff has made eight career appearances (seven starts) against Arizona, with a 3-1 record, a 4.81 ERA, and 49 strikeouts over 39 1/3 innings. One of those wins came in his lone appearance against them last August, when he allowed five runs over 5 2/3 innings but picked up eight strikeouts in a 7-5 Brewer win.

Soroka, 28, is in his seventh MLB season and with his fifth team. After agreeing to a one-year, $7.5 million deal this offseason, he’s been a bright spot for Arizona early this season. Through five starts, he’s a perfect 4-0 with a 2.60 ERA, 2.69 FIP, and 34 strikeouts in 27 2/3 innings. His last start was his lone no-decision of the year, though he still went five innings with one run allowed and six strikeouts in a game the D-backs ultimately lost late. Soroka has made two career appearances against Milwaukee, one with the Braves (2023) and one with the White Sox (2024). In those two appearances, he went 1-1 with seven runs allowed over seven innings, striking out six.

Tuesday, April 28: Brewers TV; listen via radio on the Brewers Radio Network (620 WTMJ in Milwaukee)

Wednesday, April 29: Brewers TV; listen via radio on the Brewers Radio Network (620 WTMJ in Milwaukee)

Thursday, April 30: Brewers TV; listen via radio on the Brewers Radio Network (620 WTMJ in Milwaukee)

I think I’m going to start writing these predictions with the caveat that it really just depends on which Brewer offense shows up. I’ll bet on the Crew, though, and predict they take two of three this week.

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House Resources Committee revises governor’s Alaska LNG bill, seeking more revenue

An Alaska House committee has made significant changes to Gov. Mike Dunleavy’s bill for the Alaska LNG megaproject, proposing a smaller tax break designed to generate more revenue for local communities and the state.

The new measure in the House Resources Committee, which passed Monday without objection, comes after the Senate Resources Committee last week adopted its own substitute bill that seeks to raise the most revenue of the three proposals.

Dunleavy introduced his measure in March, seeking to support the project by replacing state and local property taxes with a much smaller “alternative volumetric tax” based on the amount of gas flow.

Resources committees in both chambers have spent weeks studying Dunleavy’s bill before presenting their substitutes, with the idea that a break on property taxes could help quickly bring the project to fruition. Project officials have said they could start laying pipe this year, though there has no been final investment decision approving construction.

Alaska LNG is the latest version of several projects that over the last half-century have tried to tap the state’s vast stores of natural gas on the remote North Slope.

The project’s high cost has always been a barrier. It’s currently estimated at $46 billion, though critics believe it will be far more expensive.

The project proposes shipping natural gas in an 800-mile pipeline for use in Southcentral Alaska starting in 2029.

Project backers say a gas treatment plant and a gas liquefaction plant would be built next so gas can also be exported overseas to big Asian buyers, starting in 2031.

Alaska leaders consider the project important for the state’s future economic growth.

Lawmakers are grappling with finding the right balance to support the project while still ensuring that Alaska communities can earn enough revenue to deal with impacts from the potential influx of thousands of workers.

Jeff Turner, a spokesperson for the governor’s office, said the project could save Alaska households $1,450 per year on energy bills, versus anticipated costs for imported gas. The administration and House Resources are “working productively on streamlining the bill,” he said.

“There are only three weeks left for lawmakers to pass a clean, straightforward LNG volumetric tax bill that incentivizes the project’s finances,” he said. “Weighing the bill down with conditions and additional taxes make the pipeline far less likely to happen. If lawmakers want the project to go forward they need to focus on fixing the state’s existing property tax which has some of the highest rates in the world.”

Larry Persily, an oil and gas analyst and former Alaska deputy commissioner of revenue, said the House and Senate versions are similar enough that even with just three weeks left in the session, lawmakers have time to pass a single version.

“It’s a lot of work, but they are on a similar path in that the governor’s proposal is inadequate in the eyes of the Legislature and the communities,” he said. “But three weeks is an eternity when you want to accomplish something.”

The committee’s co-chair, Rep. Robyn Niayuq Frier, D-Utqiagvik, said during the hearing that the substitute is a “working document” that will receive its next hearing on Wednesday, and possible amendments.

Like the proposal in the Senate, the new House substitute would retain the governor’s proposed volumetric tax.

Dunleavy had proposed taxing the gas flowing through the full project at 6 cents for every 1,000 cubic feet, which would bring in about $75 million annually for state and local revenues. That’s far below the $1 billion annually the project could receive in property taxes under existing state law.

The House substitute proposes taxing gas flowing through the pipe at 5 cents for every 1,000 cubic feet, generating about $65 million a year for local and state revenues.

But separately, it also would tax the gas flow through the gas treatment plant at 5 cents per 1,000 cubic feet, and the liquefied natural gas plant at 10 cents per 1,000 cubic feet, generating more revenue to Alaska communities, according to a summary of the bill.

The House substitute sets a quicker timeline for that revenue to start, compared to the governor’s bill.

The House substitute also gives the North Slope and Kenai Peninsula boroughs the option to replace the volumetric tax with an equity stake in the project.

The North Slope Borough would be home to the gas treatment plant.

The Kenai Peninsula Borough would be home to the large plant that makes liquefied natural gas, or LNG, so the gas could be exported overseas to large Asian buyers.

In addition to those significant additions, both those boroughs would also have a portion of the pipeline in their backyard.

The amount of revenue the substitute might generate for the state and local communities was not presented in the hearing Monday.

Officials with the Alaska Gasline Development Corp., a minority partner in the project alongside 75% owner Glenfarne, said in the hearing that the substitute bill has some positive attributes for the project and represents progress toward a final investment decision.

But they added that it poses some challenges due to its higher take on the project than the governor has proposed.

“It will create more of a challenge in terms of the economics of the project as more taxes are placed on project,” said Frank Richards, head of the Alaska Gasline Development Corp., at the hearing.

Richards also urged the Legislature to act quickly, saying the state faces an energy crisis as locally produced gas from Cook Inlet wanes.

“The timeline is very, very short,” he said.

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