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Happy Asteroid Day! Prize-Winning Plan Focuses on Space Infrastructure
For decades, astronomers and policymakers have been working on plans to protect our planet from killer asteroids. But now there’s a new realm to protect: the thousands of satellites we’re putting in orbit.
And that’s just the start: Future off-world infrastructure, ranging from orbital fuel depots to moon bases, could be hit by asteroids, meteoroid storms or other threats from above.
A new proposal to identify such threats — and do something about them — has earned two researchers from the University of Edinburgh this year’s Schweickart Prize, which is named in honor of Apollo 9 astronaut (and planetary defense advocate) Rusty Schweickart.
“As human activity and vital interests rapidly expand into regions beyond the protective shield of our atmosphere, the number of passing objects capable of causing serious damage to both life and critical infrastructure increases dramatically,” Schweickart said today in a news release. “Our Schweickart Prize winners this year have called for a comprehensive and systematic examination of this emerging reality.”
University of Edinburgh researchers Brian Murphy and Richard Cannon are the winners of this year’s Schweickart Prize, which is named after Apollo 9 astronaut Rusty Schweickart.
The winners — Brian Murphy and Richard Cannon — are due to receive the prize at Lowell Observatory in Arizona on June 27. The Schweickart Prize is a B612 Foundation program that encourages graduate students to come up with fresh ideas aimed at defending our planet from near-Earth objects, or NEOs. Winners receive a $10,000 cash award as well as a museum-quality trophy with a meteorite on top.
Past prize-winners have proposed methods for spotting asteroids coming at us from a difficult-to-monitor zone between Earth and the sun, or for managing future risks associated with asteroid mining. This year’s winning proposal focuses on potential threats posed by streams of space grit, or by space rocks that are far smaller than your typical asteroid. As Schweickart noted, those cosmic bits would burn up in our atmosphere, but they can do a lot of damage in the vacuum of space.
Murphy and Cannon propose setting up an international commission to assess the threats to space infrastructure, in Earth orbit and beyond. That would lead to the creation of a coordinating body to build on the work currently being done to anticipate asteroid threats. The researchers call their proposed coordinating body “WARDEN,” which stands for Warning Network for Asset Resilience From Dusts, Ejecta and NEOs.
Murphy, whose research focuses on planetary defense missions and the composition of comets, said the idea for the proposal came to him in a dream.
“I had a very vivid dream that there was this meteoroid storm impacting Earth, and I woke up in the morning and said, ‘I need to check that out. Is this related to the Schweickart Prize? Could I submit this?’” he recalled. It didn’t take long for him to run the calculations and team up with Cannon, a fellow postgraduate researcher.
Satellite operators have long known that meteoroid storms can ruin their spacecraft. They typically reduce the risk through shielding, plus special maneuvers aimed at minimizing a satellite’s exposure during a predicted storm. But protective measures don’t always work. In 1993, meteoroids from the Perseid meteor shower are thought to have led to the demise of the European Space Agency’s Olympus 1 satellite. And scientists suspect that a Perseid meteoroid dealt a blow to the NASA/USGS Landsat 5 satellite in 2009.
Since 2009, the number of satellites in orbit has mushroomed from fewer than 1,000 to more than 17,000 — mostly due to the expansion of SpaceX’s Starlink constellation. Murphy and Cannon estimate that the exposure to meteoroids has increased by a factor of 10 to 100, and that the risk will increase exponentially as more commercial ventures build out their satellite mega-constellations.
“Even when we had a hundredth of the assets in space, there was still damage that was in the $1.2 billion range,” Murphy said. “You can do the numbers for yourself there and say, all right, if we have 100 times that now, and potentially 1,000 times that in the next decade … this is going to be a big problem, and we need to start addressing that question now.”
In their proposal, Murphy and Cannon even lay out deadlines for doing something: “There are meteoroid storms coming back in 2028, 2033 and 2034 that historically have been damaging to spacecraft in the 1990s, as well as some of the biggest meteoroid storms ever recorded in the 1960s,” Murphy said. The 2028 event is predicted during the Perseids that August, while the potential storms in 2033 and 2034 are associated with November’s Leonid meteor shower.
Is the meteoroid threat on the radar for satellite ventures? The short answer appears to be yes, thanks in part to the fact that protective measures are already being taken to address the impact of satellite collisions in orbit. SpaceX, for example, equips its Starlink satellites with extra shielding — and it has a procedure for reducing a satellite’s exposure to impacts by flattening its solar panels.
The engineers at Starcloud, a Seattle-area space venture that eventually plans to launch tens of thousands of data center satellites, are also aware of the issue. “Right now we are very focused on the engineering for the first and second satellite, but it’s something we will put more time into as we build out the constellation,” Starcloud co-founder and CEO Philip Johnston said in an email.
Looking beyond Earth orbit, the WARDEN system that Murphy and Cannon propose would monitor potential threats to space infrastructure extending as far out as the moon. Last year, NASA reported that a building-sized asteroid known as 2024 YR4 had a small chance of hitting the moon in 2032. Ed Lu, executive director of the B612 Foundation’s Asteroid Institute, said an impact by an asteroid that large would result in a “pretty big explosion” and create a 2-kilometer-wide (1.2-mile-wide) crater.
NASA eventually ruled out an impact, but the episode served to illustrate the cosmic risks that future moon bases would have to contend with, perhaps starting in the 2030s. The risks could come not only from passing asteroids, but also from cometary fragments or the debris that’s blasted into space by future asteroid mining operations.
A chart from the prize-winning report points up hazards and space assets that would be covered by a new planetary defense initiative. (Credit: B. Murphy and R. Cannon via SchweickartPrize.org and B612 Foundation)
Murphy and Cannon argue that the international bodies currently tasked with monitoring potential asteroid threats to Earth — the International Asteroid Warning Network and the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group — aren’t well-positioned to focus on off-Earth threats. Murphy said adding WARDEN to the mix would “create a trifecta of planetary defense.”
“They all are checks and balances to each other, rather than two systems that could be at odds with planetary defense,” he said.
So, where does the proposal go from here? “The next step is, first of all, engaging with the expertise that is present,” Murphy said. “The primary way that we’ll go about that is through Richard Cannon, my co-author, as well as my network within the small-body community.”
Murphy and Cannon plan to use their $10,000 award to fund meetings that will result in the creation of the International Commission on Space Infrastructure Resilience, or ICSIR.
“Our first ICSIR meeting would be at the University of Edinburgh in Scotland,” Murphy said. “We want to have potential meetings of ICSIR roughly every six months following the first meeting, and really keep that momentum going, and also have an online presence for ICSIR.”
The way Murphy sees it, winning the prize is just the start of something far bigger. “We’re about to expand into the final frontier, further than we’ve ever gone before, and bring with us the critical infrastructure for our civilization,” he said. “So we simply must evolve planetary defense to protect that as well.”
All about Asteroid Day
Murphy and Cannon will discuss their proposal at 9 a.m. PT today during a live online event that’s open to the press and the public. Registration is available via SchweickartPrize.org.
The June 27 presentation of the trophy and the $10,000 award at Lowell Observatory is timed to coincide with an Asteroid Day celebration featuring Rusty Schweickart and fellow NASA astronauts. Check out the Asteroid Day Arizona website for the full program.
Three other Schweickart Prize proposals earned honorable mentions:
Heritage Auctions is conducting a sale featuring Apollo memorabilia from Rusty Schweickart, consigned by the B612 Foundation. B612 has also launched a separate auction of Schweickart memorabilia. Proceeds from both auctions will support the Schweickart Prize.
Founding sponsors of the Schweickart Prize program include Anousheh Ansari, Barringer Crater Company, Future Ventures, Geoffrey Notkin, Jurvetson Family Foundation, Meteor Crater Enterprises, Randy Schweickart and Michelle Heng, and Rusty B. Schweickart and Joanne Keys.
International Asteroid Day is observed annually on June 30 as a U.N.-sanctioned occasion aimed at raising public awareness about the risks of asteroid impacts. It commemorates the Tunguska explosion, a cosmic impact that destroyed half a million acres of Siberian forest land on June 30, 1908.
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9th Circuit blocks law to prevent ‘forced outing’ of trans students
California’s effort to shield the decisions of transgender students in public schools from the eyes of prying parents remains on hold this week after the U.S. 9th Circuit Court of Appeals found a state law designed to protect them was likely unconstitutional.
The U.S. Supreme Court previously upheld a temporary block on the law after it was challenged, sending the case back to the appellate court. The 9th Circuit’s ruling Thursday kept the block in place, saying the state cannot enforce the measure while the court battle over its legality continues.
Passed in 2024, the California law known as Assembly Bill 1955 was intended to prevent school employees from notifying parents about a student’s gender expression without their consent. Boosters of the law say it protects vulnerable students from “forced outing” to families who may be hostile to their trans and nonbinary children. Opponents say it compels schools to “mislead” parents about their children and leaves them “shut out” of critical decisions.
The 9th Circuit had previously allowed the law to stand while the state fought an injunction from a district court in Santa Ana.
Legal experts said the appellate court’s latest decision appeared to expand “parental rights” — a move with potentially significant implications for all U.S. families, including the roughly 72.5 million American children who are not transgender.
Mary Ziegler, a professor at the UC Davis School of Law and an expert on American parental rights laws, said the ruling was “arguably significantly more extensive than the Supreme Court has spelled out.”
“Trans issues are hot-button issues … but this kind of parental rights litigation has much broader ambitions, some of which have nothing to do with LGBTQ people,” she said. “There’s an ambition to transform parental rights period, and the easiest way to do that is to focus on trans issues.”
Quoting extensively from the related March Supreme Court decision, the 9th Circuit panel found that parents “have an affirmative constitutional right” to be told if their children swap names or pronouns, change how they dress or otherwise alter their gender expression at school.
The panel of appellate judges said they heard no arguments that the California families who brought the challenge “are ‘unfit parents’ who present a risk of abuse if they are provided with information about their children exhibiting symptoms of gender dysphoria.”
Conservatives, including Justice Amy Coney Barrett, have criticized the California law for meddling in the affairs of families.
“Under California’s policy, parents will be excluded — perhaps for years — from participating in consequential decisions about their child’s mental health and wellbeing,” Barrett wrote in a concurrence to the Supreme Court’s decision in March. “Thus, the parents are likely to suffer irreparable harm if California enforces its policy while this litigation winds its way through the courts.”
The court’s liberal justices disagreed, finding the decision premature.
“I have no doubt that parents have rights, even though unenumerated, concerning their children and the life choices they make,” Justice Elena Kagen wrote in her dissent. “California’s policy, in depriving all parents of information critical to their children’s health and well-being, could have crossed the constitutional line.”
There are multiple similar suits currently en route to the high court, each challenging local or state policies that prevent schools from disclosing certain information about children’s gender identity and expression to their parents. Many, including the two related California cases, are championed by conservative legal activists expressly in the name of parents’ rights.
Thursday’s 9th Circuit ruling was a “major victory,” said America First Legal, an advocacy organization co-founded by senior White House aide Stephen Miller, which helped argue the case.
The Supreme Court’s decision emerged from a suit brought on behalf of two California teachers by the Thomas More Society, a conservative public interest firm named for the 16th century Catholic saint.
Ziegler and other experts warned a future decision could echo through the legal landscape, transforming how courts approach issues as disparate as school vaccine mandates and whether parental discipline warrants the intervention of state child protective services.
“Reasonable people can disagree about what involvement parents should or shouldn’t have in this context,” Ziegler said of the California trans rights law. “But that’s not what this is about. It’s about this complete overhaul of the power parents have. And children are vanishing from the story.”
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Clive Davis, Music Industry Titan Who Signed Whitney Houston, Dies at 94
He rose from a midlevel position at Columbia Records to become one of music’s most powerful executives, shepherding stars like Barry Manilow and Whitney Houston.
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Astronomers Want to Build a Swarm of Telescopes to Find LIFE
Current plans for flagship telescopes in the 2040s are focused on answering a simple question – are we alone? Our best telescopes to date, such as the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) have only given us tantalizing glimpses into the atmospheres or other worlds, but not enough to truly determine whether or not life as we know it exists there. Astronomers have been waiting for technology to catch up to their dreams of what is possible in terms of new types of telescopes, and recently the W.M. Keck Institute for Space Studies released a report detailing the Large Interferometer For Exoplanets (LIFE) mission, which they hope will help provide a definitive answer to that simple question.
Exoplanets are hard to take pictures of. For one thing – they are typically very close to their host star, which is also billions of times brighter than them. One solution to that problem is to use a device called a coronagraph, which physically blocks the star’s light, allowing the telescope to capture only (reflected) light coming from the planet itself. This is the technique planned for use in NASA’s Habitable World Observatory (HWO), and it’s effective at capturing visible and ultraviolet light.
But there’s another type of light that’s particularly useful for hunting habitable exoplanets – mid-infrared. At these wavelengths, which monitor emitted heat, the contrast between the planet and star drops dramatically, allowing telescopes to directly observe (non-reflected) thermal light from the planet directly. But perhaps more importantly, the mid-infrared is a gold mine of potential spectral biosignatures, including ozone, methane, water, carbon dioxide, and even phosphine, a potential “capstone” biosignature in some contexts.
Fraser interviews Dr. Daniel Angerhausen about the LIFE telescope.
Building a system to capture this light is no easy feat, though. The JWST is already designed to capture infrared light, but even it was too small to effectively isolate exoplanets at the resolution required to provide a detailed picture of their atmosphere. In fact, any space telescope big enough to do so would be too bulky to fit on a rocket. So the LIFE designers suggest an alternative – formation-flying null interferometry.
Essentially they want to launch multiple spacecraft and fly them in a precise, untethered formation tens to hundreds of meters apart. They then beam the light they collect to a central collecting spacecraft, allowing it to do some fancy optical tricks to both “null” the light from the central star while also boosting the heat signature of the planet itself.
That sounds great in theory, but in practice it’s been notoriously tricky to build. LIFE isn’t the first proposed space interferometer – in fact two missions this century (Terrestrial Planet Finder-Interferometer from NASA and Darwin from ESA) have already been cancelled because the technology just wasn’t ready yet. According to the new report, though, our engineering skills have recently caught up with our imagination.
Fraser talks about the limits of the HWO
Breakthroughs in astrophotonics have shrunk what would once be a bench-sized optical instrument down to the form factor of a microchip. And the commercial space launch industry is continuing to push down launch costs for all sorts of missions. The report notes that formation flying, one of the trickiest parts of the proposed LIFE mission, is planned for a few technology demonstration missions, such as SEIRIOS and SunRISE, which will fly CubeSats in formation, in the coming years.
As the technology matures, the likelihood of the LIFE mission actually being technologically feasible improves. But what about that other life hunting mission – the HWO? The report points out that LIFE and HWO are actually great tag-team partners and look at completely separate pieces of the same puzzle. HWO will focus on visible/ultraviolet light, while LIFE will measure thermal emission in the mid-infrared to derive a planet’s temperature, radius, and atmospheric composition. Combining data from both missions is critical to eliminate “false positives” where something that might look like a biosignature is actually caused by an abiotic process.
HWO is planned to launch in the 2040s, but is still undergoing its design phase. LIFE is also in development, and while the two may launch in similar timeframes, LIFE’s primary goal is to provide complementary data to HWO. The report points out that, in order to spread the funding around evenly, the LIFE project should be an international collaboration rather than reliant on a single funding source.
If the LIFE project is funded, hopefully HWO will be too. But even if not, we are finally getting to a point where we can build a system that can help us find the proof that we are not alone, and if that isn’t inspiring enough to fund these programs, it’s unclear what would be.
Learn More:
S. P. Quanz et al – Exploring Exoplanets with Interferometry
UT – The Next Generation LIFE Telescope Could Detect Some Intriguing Biosignatures
UT – The LIFE Telescope Passed its First Test: It Detected Biosignatures on Earth.
UT – Future Telescopes Could Detect Life Managing their Planet Atmospheres
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