Premier League title race: How big is Arsenal’s advantage over Manchester City before matchweek 36?

The Athletic has live coverage of West Ham United vs. Arsenal.

Welcome back to The Athletic’s title-race tracker, where our data and tactics writers analyse the key trends behind the two-horse race for the Premier League crown.

With just three weeks to go until the season finale on May 24, Arsenal have taken a huge step towards securing their first title in 22 years. Their comfortable 3-0 home win against Fulham last Saturday, coupled with Manchester City’s stumble at Everton on the Monday night, leaves Mikel Arteta’s side in control.

Both sides are in action this weekend, before City play their game in hand on Arsenal against visitors Crystal Palace on Wednesday. The Athletic looks at form and fixture difficulty, and checks in with the Opta supercomputer, to try to predict who will come out on top.

What has changed since the last matchweek?

Reports of Arsenal’s demise were greatly exaggerated: they have wrestled back control of the title race. The victory over Fulham, coupled with City dropping points in that 3-3 draw at Everton, has placed the north Londoners firmly back in the driving seat. They are now five points clear with three games to go (for them), although City can cut that gap to two by winning their game in hand in midweek.

points step with result tiles

After that 2-1 defeat away to City last month, Arsenal’s subsequent 1-0 home win against Newcastle United still felt like the performance of a team acutely aware of the pressure mounting around them, with the Emirates Stadium crowd’s tetchiness palpable.

That changed at the same venue last Saturday, when Arteta’s side blew Fulham away. Confidence surged further on Tuesday night, after a 1-0 victory over Spanish side Atletico Madrid secured their passage to a first Champions League final in 20 years. The nervous tension that had enveloped the Emirates was banished, replaced by a carnival atmosphere.

The mood music at City, meanwhile, is noticeably more subdued, although Jeremy Doku’s last-gasp curling equaliser on Merseyside did keep their hopes alive.

Who is looking stronger?

There is a fair argument to suggest that Arsenal’s defeat of Fulham was their most fluent attacking display of the season.

The numbers certainly back that up.

They racked up their highest xG value of the Premier League campaign, and scored three first-half goals in a league game for the first time since November 2024, easing away from Marco Silva’s side and allowing them to withdraw the likes of Bukayo Saka, Viktor Gyokeres and Declan Rice early ahead of their Champions League semi-final decider in midweek.

arsenal fulham xg step 2026 05 02

Saka looked back to his best on the flanks, leaving Raul Jimenez on the floor as he chopped onto his right foot and fired the ball across goal for Gyokeres to tap home the opening goal, before pitching in with a well-taken finish at the near post himself to double the lead.

But perhaps the most pleasing display came from Myles Lewis-Skelly, starting his first game in midfield this season. Only centre-back William Saliba completed more passes than the 19-year-old, while he was involved in the most possession sequences, jumping from space to space in midfield and knitting together Arsenal’s most threatening passing moves.

As we can see from the pass network below, Lewis-Skelly frequently dropped deep to pick possession up from Gabriel in central defence, and worked to progress the ball to the likes of Rice and Eberechi Eze, who drifted over to Saka’s side to help establish Arsenal’s swirling right-hand side that has made them look so dangerous under Arteta over the years.

It looked as if the shackles were off for Arsenal, and although they have the luxury of not having to rely on goal difference to seal the title anymore, they seem good value to add a few more goals before the season is out.

Up at Hill Dickinson Stadium two days later, lapses in concentration across their defence saw City’s six-game winning run grind to a halt.

Pep Guardiola’s side largely controlled the first half, seeing 76 per cent of the possession and amassing 12 shots as they headed into the break with a one-goal cushion, courtesy of Doku’s pinpoint left-footed finish.

But things quickly began to unravel after Marc Guehi underhit a back pass to goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma, allowing Thierno Barry to steal in and equalise. Everton generated 82 per cent of their expected goals after the hour mark, sensing City’s vulnerability and asserting themselves physically. They packed the penalty area as Jake O’Brien rose highest to power them in front, while Merlin Rohl broke free from Mateo Kovacic in the build-up to their third.

It remains to be seen whether Doku’s 97th-minute leveller represents a significant point for City, but there is no doubt that this feels like two more dropped.

Who has the tougher upcoming schedule?

When it comes to fixtures, Arsenal hold the upper hand, at least on paper.

Based on the average Opta Power Ranking of their final games, no Premier League club have an easier run-in, with all three of Arsenal’s remaining matches coming against teams currently in the bottom six.

But motivations diverge wildly at this stage of a season, making fixture difficulty tricky to assess.

Take Fulham, Arsenal’s opponents from last Saturday. No Premier League side are more regularly accused of being “on the beach” as campaigns draw to a close. A record of just four wins from their past 18 fixtures played in May reflects a club who often end up stuck in that liminal space between European qualification and the relegation zone.

Next up for Arsenal is an away game against West Ham United, a side nobody could accuse of lacking motivation at this point in the season. The east London club are desperately fighting for Premier League survival and fell back into the relegation zone last weekend. It is likely to be Arsenal’s toughest remaining test, although their last two visits to the London Stadium have ended in 5-2 and 6-0 away victories.

On the other hand, their final-Sunday trip to Selhurst Park might sound tricky, but Palace are likely to rotate their team heavily in that one, with a Conference League final against Rayo Vallacano of Spain three days after.

City also play Palace in their rescheduled game in hand, from Carabao Cup final weekend in March, which was finally confirmed this week for next Wednesday, May 13 — three days before they play in the FA Cup final. Guardiola’s side then face a daunting trip to sixth-placed Bournemouth three days after that meeting with Chelsea at Wembley. The visit of Brentford this weekend is no easy task either, given their guests are seventh and also harbour European ambitions.

Rounding out City’s season is a home match against Aston Villa.

On paper, Villa are their toughest remaining opponents, but there is a decent chance they will have already achieved their objective of qualifying for the 2026-27 Champions League by then, leaving the game with little riding on it beyond pride for Unai Emery’s side. That match is also being played just four days after the Europa League final, with all the emotion that will entail.

What does the supercomputer say?

The Opta supercomputer, as it has since the middle of October, still believes the advantage lies with Arsenal.

The strength of that belief has fluctuated, dipping sharply after their March defeat by City before rising again in recent weeks. It now stands at 86 per cent, an assessment that reflects both Arsenal’s points advantage and easier remaining fixtures.

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Heastie clarifies comments opposing Hochul’s announcement

State Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie had a softer tone on where budget negotiations with Gov. Kathy Hochul stand on Friday — a day after he pushed back on her assertion the deal was done.

“We had a really good conversation. I think, like I said, my issue was never with her,” Heastie said. “I feel like I have an amazing relationship with the governor. My concern was more of the process. And I do think we’re very close on a budget, and I expect that we’ll get it done in short order.”

What You Need To Know

State Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie had a softer tone on where budget negotiations with Gov. Kathy Hochul stand on Friday — a day after he pushed back on her assertion the deal was done

As is typical for Albany, the budget — which is overdue — is being tied to multiple policy initiatives, including crackdowns on so-called “super speeders,” pension benefit changes and a buffer zone around houses of worship during protests

Among issues impacting the city: a push to change how the state provides funding to school districts, in order to increase money for students who live in temporary housing

As is typical for Albany, the budget — which is overdue — is being tied to multiple policy initiatives, including crackdowns on so-called “super speeders,” pension benefit changes and a buffer zone around houses of worship during protests.

On Thursday, Heastie pushed back against that arrangement:

“There’s no deal,” he said. “I’m saying this to y’all very clearly: I’m never doing this again. Budgets are supposed to be about money, not policy.”

Heastie shared what he thinks is holding up the budget on Friday.

“Probably conceptual agreement on, on some of the policy things. But, you know, I would feel that budgets are about fiscal documents. And we have to finalize the Medicaid budget. We have to finalize, you know, education, what we’re doing in, and higher education. So, like I said, we’re close and I think it’ll get done soon,” Heastie said.

Among issues impacting the city: a push to change how the state provides funding to school districts, in order to increase money for students who live in temporary housing.

“I think that’s going to happen in this budget. But those are some of the details we still have to work out.”

Heastie was in the Bronx to ceremonially break ground on a new mini soccer pitch, part of a $1 million investment from Airbnb in connection with the World Cup.

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The Lakers have found a playoff riser against the Thunder

Success in the regular season doesn’t always carry over to the playoffs.

The difference is bigger than ever, as lower seeds are advancing more often. The games get tougher, players play harder and defenses focus for all 48 minutes.

A playoff riser is a term for players who elevate their game and perform at their best when the stakes are highest. Rui Hachimura, through eight games this year and continuing from previous playoff runs, has done just that as he’s transformed into one of the most reliable jump shooters in basketball.

Putting up a valiant fight, the Lakers fell to OKC on Thursday and now trail 2-0 in the series. The results are no surprise as, without superstar Luka Dončić, the purple and gold were heavy underdogs against the deepest team in the league.

OKC will remain heavy favorites even as the series shifts to Los Angeles for Games 3 and 4.

The final score didn’t reflect the competitiveness of either of the first two matchups. The Thunder pulled away in the fourth in Game 1 to win by 18. The start of Game 2 looked like a continuation as OKC scored the first seven points and LA missed its first five shots.

As they’ve done many times, the Lakers found their “release valve” who made something out of nothing.

Watch below as Marcus Smart drives into the congested lane with no advantage and kicks out at Hachimura. Defended by the Chet Holmgren, runner-up for Defensive Player of the Year, Rui attacks him in isolation and gets to his patented mid-range pull-up to break the ice for LA.

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Called a lost art and a shot that’s maligned during the 82-game grind, the mid-range jumper becomes essential once teams game plan to take away attempts at the rim or 3-point line.

Among players who attempted a minimum of two per game, Hachimura led the league in the regular season from mid-range, shooting 55.6% on those jumpers.

Where he’s become irreplaceable for LA during the playoffs is the 3-point shooting. Hachimura is currently at a blistering 57.1% on over five attempts per game this postseason after shooting 48% last year in five games against Minnesota.

That number leads the Lakers and ranks second among players who take at least three per game in the entire playoffs.

With LA still reeling to start Game 2, trailing 11-4, watch below as Hachimura catches it in the corner off a LeBron James pass and hits the 3-pointer over an outstretched Holmgren.

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His main value remains being a player you can’t tag off of in the corner while the Lakers run on-ball actions. Watch below as Austin Reaves, who scored 31 points in Game 2, collects one of his six assists with a skip pass to the wide-open Hachimura.

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Hachimura’s 57.1% from three jumps to an automatic 70.4% on wide-open attempts.

Taking into account the Lakers’ storied history as a franchise, Hachimura is already ninth all-time in 3-pointers made. He still holds the record for the highest playoff 3-point percentage in NBA history at 51%.

He’s not a perfect player by any means. The defensive foot speed, lack of athletic tools at his position as a three or four and finishing at the rim leave a lot to be desired.

With that being said, he’s scored in double digits every game this postseason. He’s shot above 50% in seven of the eight games and reliably played over 40 minutes in the Lakers’ first three contests against Houston to help upset the Rockets in the first round.

Being tagged as one of the best shooters in the league, or a “laser” as head coach JJ Redick calls it, is an extremely valuable piece, especially considering the needs around Luka this summer.

Hachimura is in the last year of a deal that will send him into unrestricted free agency. While they have his Bird rights, the Lakers have a ton of players to evaluate and are not in a position to let talent walk out the door without getting anything in return.

The grass could always be greener when it comes to wings in the NBA. No matter how this season ends, LA has one that’s shown to be a playoff riser, making for tough decisions to come this summer.

You can follow Raj on X at @RajChipalu

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Who is the best FPL captain for Double Gameweek 36?

An image of Rayan Cherki Erling Haaland and Nico O Reilly for FPL

In a Gameweek where Manchester City are one of only TWO clubs to play twice, the captaincy decision for millions of managers in Fantasy Premier League comes down to this: are you looking to defend your mini-league lead or do you need to take risks to gain ground on your rivals with just three rounds of fixtures remaining?

As the most-owned player in Fantasy, there is no doubt that Erling Haaland (£14.7m) is set to be the runaway captain favourite for Man City’s two home matches in Double Gameweek 36 (DGW36) against Brentford and Crystal Palace.

And some of his 62 per cent backers will also be playing their Triple Captain chip on the Norwegian, who has returned to top form by scoring in three successive matches for the first time since Gameweeks 6-8.

But you only need to look back to Man City’s recent Double Gameweek 33 (DGW33) to show why Haaland has strong competition from his team-mates.

Indeed, both Nico O’Reilly (£5.2m) and Rayan Cherki (£6.6m) matched the 13 points of Haaland across those contests against Arsenal and Burnley.

Who are Man City’s form players?

An assessment of Man City’s last four matches – since they moved back to a lone forward formation – shows that Haaland has been outscored by five of his team-mates in Fantasy.

Jeremy Doku (£6.4m) leads the way on 31 points, scoring three goals and supplying an assist.

Cherki and O’Reilly, meanwhile, boast identical records – they have both amassed 28 points, producing four returns and blanking only once.

Whereas Cherki’s returns consist of one goal and three assists, O’Reilly’s listing as a defender in Fantasy is crucial here – he combined a goal and an assist with two clean sheets to mirror his team-mate’s output.

Haaland has also blanked only once, with his return to form boosted by the 4-2-3-1 system.

Man City’s top-scoring players, last four matches

Player	Pts	Returns	Blanks/Starts
Doku	31	4	1/4
Cherki, O’Reilly	28	4	1/4
Guehi	27	4	1/4
Khusanov	24	2	0/4
Haaland	22	3	1/4

Scroll across on mobile to see the full table

Who’s had the most attacking potential?

A delve into the underlying data indicates that Haaland is very much the focal point of Man City’s attack once again.

The Norwegian has had six big chances, which are situations where a player is expected to score – that’s at least four more than any team-mate in Man City’s last four matches.

Cherki runs the forward the closest in the analysis thanks to his major all-round threat.

The midfielder has had two big chances of his own and created three more of them, which means he has been involved in five big chances – just one less than Haaland.

Cherki’s 13 shots in the box catch the eye, with that total more than double the five of winger Doku.

O’Reilly again impresses for a Fantasy defender, ranking third for big-chance involvement and shots in the box.

Attacking potential, last four matches

Player	Big-chance inv.	Big chances	BCC*	Shots in box
Haaland	6	6	0	17
Cherki	5	2	3	13
O’Reilly	3	2	1	7
Doku	2	1	1	5

*Scroll across on mobile to see the full table. BCC = Big chances created

What about their output in Man Cit’s home matches?

A look at their displays over home matches this season highlights the relentless consistency of O’Reilly due to his potential for points at both ends of the pitch.

He’s blanked just twice in 13 starts at the Etihad Stadium and has averaged 7.6 points per start (pps) in home matches this season, more than the 7.2pps of Haaland.

The England star has combined four goals and four assists with seven clean sheets, which means he’s produced 15 returns at the Etihad Stadium.

Haaland, meanwhile, has scored 14 goals and supplied three assists in home matches and has been involved in 47 per cent of their goals at the Etihad.

Cherki‘s 39 per cent involvement isn’t too far off Haaland here but, similarly to the forward, his consistency is some way behind O’Reilly.

Comparison in home matches, 25/26

	O’Reilly	Haaland	Cherki
Pts per start	7.6	7.2	5.6
Returns	15	17	7
Blanks/Starts	2/13	5/15	4/9
Goal inv.	24%	47%	39%

Scroll across on mobile to see the full table

So, who’s the best captain?

If you’re defending a strong advantage in your mini-league, Haaland offers an easy solution.

He’ll be the most-selected captain for DGW36 and the underlying numbers show there’s a huge risk in going against him.

Both O’Reilly and Cherki also look well-placed for bumper hauls and the Frenchman certainly has the edge on attacking potential alone.

But as the seasonal numbers show, O’Reilly’s ability to also earn four points for a clean sheet – the same as Haaland gets for scoring a goal – is also a big factor here.

If you really need to go against the Norwegian, then O’Reilly’s all-round output makes him the one to back.

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